Crop ratings slip after dry spring, but harvest hope remains

Our final crop development report of 2026 shows that a dry spring has reduced crop condition ratings across much of the UK, although winter cereals and oilseed rape remain in a stronger position than at the same stage in recent seasons.

Following prolonged dry conditions through April and much of May, many crops experienced moisture stress and uneven development.

While rainfall late in May provided relief for some areas, recovery has been variable, particularly on lighter soils and in parts of eastern England. The recent heatwave poses a further risk and adds to uncertainty regarding harvest results.

According to our final crop condition assessment, 64% of winter wheat was rated good or excellent, alongside 62% of winter barley, 71% of winter oats and 78% of winter oilseed rape (OSR). Although these ratings are lower than those recorded in April, they remain above those seen during the difficult 2025 season.

The report found that winter oilseed rape has generally performed better than winter cereal crops, while winter oats have shown greater resilience than wheat and barley.

Disease pressure remains relatively low, although yellow rust continues to require close monitoring in some areas. Moisture availability is expected to be the key determinant of final yields.

Helen Plant, AHDB Lead Analyst for Cereals & Oilseeds, said:

"The dry conditions through April and much of May have clearly taken a toll on crop development, particularly for spring crops and winter cereals with limited moisture reserves.

"While recent rainfall has helped in some areas, it hasn’t been enough to fully reverse earlier impacts, and in others there has not been enough to create a significant effect. Variability remains a key feature of this season.

"Despite this, crop conditions for most winter crops remain ahead of where they were at the same point last year, demonstrating the benefits of the strong start many crops experienced during the autumn and early spring.

"As harvest approaches, yield outcomes will depend heavily on local weather conditions and soil moisture availability, but there remains reason for cautious optimism across much of the UK."

Regional differences continue to be a defining feature of the 2026 season. England has generally seen the greatest impact from dry weather, while crops in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have benefited from more favourable moisture levels.

Spring crops have faced the greatest challenges, with establishment and early growth affected by dry seedbeds and limited rainfall.

The crop development report combines weather observations, crop assessments and agronomic intelligence gathered across the UK by RSK ADAS, providing an independent snapshot of crop performance and yield potential ahead of harvest.

UK crop condition ratings: June 2026

• Winter wheat: 1% very poor, 4% poor, 37% fair, 49% good, 9% excellent
• Winter barley: 0% very poor, 4% poor, 31% fair, 47% good, 17% excellent
• Winter oats: 0% very poor, 4% poor, 32% fair, 54% good, 10% excellent
• Winter oilseed rape (OSR): 1% very poor, 3% poor, 17% fair, 56% good, 24% excellent
• Spring wheat: 0% very poor, 6% poor, 60% fair, 32% good, 1% excellent
• Spring barley: 1% very poor, 10% poor, 34% fair, 43% good, 12% excellent
• Spring oats: 1% very poor, 14% poor, 42% fair, 37% good, 5% excellent
• Spring oilseed rape (OSR): 7% very poor, 2% poor, 77% fair, 13% good, 0% excellent

Data on UK crop conditions captured up to Monday 22 June 2026. Figures may not sum to 100% due to rounding; smaller crops like spring wheat and spring OSR are subject to greater uncertainty.