Building Resilience into your Rotation: Grain market daily

• UK feed wheat futures saw continued decline yesterday, reflecting the downward trend of global prices. The Nov-24 contract shed £1.40/t to settle at £193.95/t, while the May-25 contract lost £1.00/t to close at £201.95/t.
• Support for prices from flooding in the US were offset by the rapid progress of the US winter wheat harvest. There was also some relief from rain in key wheat producing regions of the Black Sea area.
• Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-24) lost €2.25/t yesterday to close at €468.75/t, tracking the wider oilseeds complex as markets continue to assess the impact of the adverse weather in the US.  
• Weather forecasts are a key price driver in the short term. The dry conditions in the Black Sea region and heavy rainfall following near-record temperatures in the US may impact crop yields. The extent of damage to the soyabean crop caused by flooding will likely impact markets once farmers have had the opportunity to evaluate it.

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This growing season has been particularly challenging for arable farmers across the UK. Continuous rainfall with few dry days for sowing has meant establishing spring crops was particularly challenging.

Following the warmest May on record in 2024, we are now seeing both spring and winter crop growth catch up. But there’s still uncertainty over crop potential.

This year has been particularly challenging. But, with 2020 standing out in recent memory too, some may be questioning if changes in weather patterns are going to continue? 

Now that we are in June, farmers across the country are thinking about their rotations for 2025 and what crops/varieties are to be planted in the autumn following the 2024 harvest. The forced changes in cropping this year, or in some cases higher fallow areas, give the chance to think about making changes to your rotation.

Arable Business Groups across the country have been discussing the importance of a resilient rotation to build a resilient business. By using Farmbench, group members are aware of their cash flows and of the crops that are costing the most grow.

Top tips from growers on how to build the most resilient rotation included:

• Know your soils – what crops perform the best on your farm? Are there particular fields that yield poorly?
• Think about how the crops in your rotation impact your soil structure
• Ensure the rotation is diverse. If ‘traditional’ break crops are proving challenging, grassland and legume crops can be good options
• Thinking about whether it could be beneficial to include livestock in the rotation. This can provide good organic manures, as well as grazing winter crops which have seen strong yields
• Consider the local markets and the contracts that are available to you

Building the best rotation for you is only one piece of the business resilience jigsaw. Do you consider how resilient your business is in the current climate?

Suggestions from group members on things to consider on how to build resilience into your business are:

1. Being a member of a co-op and/or a machinery ring. This gives the opportunity to potentially market grain together, purchase fertilisers/sprays at reduced rates and have access to contractors when required.
2. Doing informal co-operation e.g. with neighbours, family or friends, by sharing staff, equipment, etc.
3. Building in some extra capacity into the business e.g. extra machinery capacity, having access to part-time /casual staff, family members, etc. Many farm businesses are too lean, especially when it comes to labour, which can make it harder to deal with weather variations.
4. Consider if your business could benefit from diversification, or conversely being simplified. This comes down to you, your strengths and what your business needs:
   1. Getting involved in a diversified business (from farming) can spread risk and mean less reliance on farm income. Examples include renewables, tourism, letting residential property in a city, off-farm income, etc.
   2. Simplify the business. Often, we have very complex farm businesses, with lots of enterprises, with similar peak labour demands, etc. Complex businesses are very demanding in terms of the quality of management required. There are simply more things to go wrong.
5. Multi-skilling staff where possible. Allows flexibility for when staff are on holiday, or someone off for health /accident reasons. Can be a benefit to staff too, as they enjoy variety. May require you to provide training.
6. Selling grain forward and buying fertiliser, this can help with cash flow in a business.

By utilising our benchmarking tool, Farmbench you can identify where your strengths and weaknesses are. Farmbench is an online benchmarking tool that allows you to compare your farm to similar businesses. It helps you to identify where you can improve efficiency and increase profits. Sign up today

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