Arable Market Report – 1 June 2026

This week's view of grain and oilseed markets, including a summary of both UK and global activity.

Figure 1. UK feed wheat futures prices, Nov-26 contract (£/tonne)

Last week, UK feed wheat futures fell under pressure from the global market.

The Nov-26 contract lost £3.50/t or 1.8% to end Friday’s trading at £186.75/t (green line with markers, Figure 1). This is below the 20-day rolling average (dashed black line, Figure 1), which had been acting as a support line.

It does remain above the 50-day rolling average (solid black line, Figure 1), currently just above £185/t, which may provide some support. However, should it fall below this, there is a risk of further pressure on prices.

However, UK futures fell by less than European futures partly due to sterling weakening against the euro. From £1 = €1.1572 on Friday 22 May, sterling rose to €1.1594 on Monday before falling to €1.1531 on Friday 29 May (European Central Bank).

The strength of sterling will be important to how UK futures prices change in the coming days.

Last week, global grain prices fell amid improved weather forecasts, harvest pressure and lower crude oil prices. The forecast rain would benefit newly planted maize crops in the USA, and offer relief after hot, dry weather in western Europe.

Traders also re-positioned as harvesting of the 2026/27 crops in the Northern Hemisphere gets underway.

The USDA expects to start reporting US winter wheat harvest progress at 5pm this evening. There seems to be a sentiment that the poorer US wheat crop is now factored into prices, so further crop news will be needed to support prices.

The USDA will also give its first assessment of 2026 maize crop conditions this evening. This alongside wheat harvest progress and crude oil prices will be key drivers for the market this week.

Nearby brent crude oil future reached its lowest level for six weeks on Friday at $92.05/barrel as US and Iran got closer to agreeing a framework for a peace deal.

Dec-26 Paris wheat futures lost 3.4% between 22 and 29 May, a three-week low, while Chicago wheat futures fell 5.3% to a five-week low. Dec-26 Chicago maize futures fell 2.4% to its lowest level since mid-April.

The EU Commission reduced its estimates of 2026 barley production in the bloc by 1.2 Mt to 51.7 Mt. This is now 3.9 Mt less than last year’s high-yielding crop but still 2.5% above the five-year average.

The Commission also cuts its forecasts for the maize crop by 0.8 Mt and soft wheat by 0.4 Mt. Both crops are now projected just 0.2% above the five-year averages.

However, SovEcon increased its estimate of the 2026 Russian wheat crop by 0.6Mt from previous figures to 90.3 Mt. The International Grains Council estimate the 2025 crop at 90.3 Mt.

With Russia’s Ag Minister forecasting 2026/27 wheat exports at 50.0 Mt, this could mean tough competition for European wheat next season.

Spring crop planting reached 52% complete by 26 May in Canada’s largest grain-growing province, Saskatchewan. But this remains the five-year average of 74% after a late spring.

Hot, dry weather last week and with high temperatures continuing into this week is helping planting progress but could stress newly emerged crops.

Canada is a key origin of high-protein wheat imports for the UK.

Table 1. Global grain futures prices

With pressure on the market, trade was reportedly quiet last week. Spot (Jun-26) feed wheat delivered in East Anglia was reported at £194.50/t. While no direct week-on-week comparison is available, the price for delivery in July-26 was at £198.00/t on 21 May.

This survey captures prices at the end each Thursday. UK feed wheat futures Nov-26 fell £2.00/t between 21 and 28 May.

Table 2. UK delivered cereal prices

n/a = not available

n/c = no comparison available

Figure 2. Paris rapeseed futures prices, Nov-26 contract (£/tonne)

The Paris rapeseed futures Nov-26 contract increased by 0.3% in £/t from Friday 22 to Friday 29 May, reaching £459.20/t. The percentage increase in £/t was higher than the increase in €/t because sterling was weaker against the euro.

Prices closed close to the £460/t resistance level last week.

The nearest support level, the 20-day rolling average, was tested again during the week and is approaching the resistance line. This suggests that the market may be worth paying more attention to in the coming weeks.

The relative strength index (RSI) fell from 60 to 54 Friday to Friday and is indicating a lack of market momentum.

Vegetable oil prices supported Paris rapeseed futures last week. However, prices came under pressure at the end of last week due to profit taking after the earlier rises. As a result, the Nov-26 Paris rapeseed contract ended last week only slightly changed, down 0.1%.   

Chicago soya bean oil futures (Dec-26) increased by 4.4%, reaching the highest level since June 2022. The lower price difference between vegetable oils supported soya bean oil prices last week as it could potentially incentivise usage of soya bean oil.

Crude oil prices came under strong pressure last week due to news of potential progress in the negotiations between the USA and Iran. Nearby Brent crude oil futures fell by 11.1% last week, closing at $92.05/barrel.

Winnipeg canola futures Nov-26 increased by 1.6%. The canola planting campaign in Canada is behind last year's figures due to adverse weather conditions. In some regions, the weather remains volatile, with cold weather being replaced by a heatwave.   

Currently favourable weather conditions mean there is optimism that Western Australian canola production could reach a high level, alongside a higher area (StoneX).

US net export sales of soya beans for 2025/26 totalled 299.9 Kt for the week ending 21 May, which was lower than the previous week but in line with average trade estimates. It is also interesting that 137.7 kt of the 2026 crop was sold.

The EU Commission has modestly increased the EU-27's rapeseed usable production forecast for the 2026/27 season by 0.05 Mt, from 20.80 Mt to 20.85 Mt, while leaving imports unchanged at 5.90 Mt.

However, Expana has reduced its forecast for EU rapeseed output in 2026 compared to April due to challenging weather conditions in some regions (LSEG).

Market participants have become cautious about palm oil production due to projections surrounding the potential for a strong El Niño event. This is currently supporting palm oil prices, which may in turn help support wider vegetable oil prices.

Currently, unfavourable weather conditions in Europe and Canada, as well as high vegetable oil prices, are supporting the market. However, falling crude oil prices and high crop estimates in Western Australia (canola) and Brazil (soya beans) are putting pressure on the market.

Table 3. Global oilseed and oil futures prices

*Brent crude oil price per barrel

Rapeseed to be delivered to Erith (Hvst-26) was reported at £462.00/t in Friday’s survey, up £4.50/t from the previous week.

The price for November delivery increased by £3.00/t, to £471.50/t. For February 2027 delivery, the price was £476.50/t, up £5.00 on the week.

These values are based on a survey conducted mid to late Friday morning and may not fully capture movements in Paris futures by the close of trading.

Table 4. UK delivered rapeseed prices

On Thursday (28 May), we released updated official forecasts of UK cereals supply and demand for 2025/26. 

The latest estimates showed that UK grain supplies are tightening, with stocks expected to be lower at the end of the 2025/26 season than we forecast in March for wheat, barley and oats. These stocks are also expected to be lower than in the 2024/25 season.

This reflects updated survey data and market conditions, as well as increased bioethanol consumption and revised estimates of grain fed on farms this season.

Last Friday (29 May) we published an crop development update for 2026 harvest.

Our latest crop development report estimates that by 25 May 2026, 64% of winter wheat is now rated good or excellent, down from 74% a month ago. Dry weather in the first three weeks of May, after the drier-than-usual April, has negatively impacted all crops.

Table 5. Delivered prices into Belfast*

*Prices provided for indicative purposes

**Basis is imported/home-grown

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