Arable Market Report – 11 May 2026

This week's view of grain and oilseed markets, including a summary of both UK and global activity.

Figure 1. UK feed wheat futures prices, Nov-26 contract (£/tonne)

The Nov-26 UK feed wheat futures price fell last week but remained above the 20-day moving average, which is currently acting as a support line. The Nov-26 contract ended Friday’s trading at £184.45/t, down by £3.15/t (1.7%) from 1 May (Figure 1).

A decline in the strength of sterling against the euro helped reduce the fall in UK wheat futures compared to European futures.

The relative strength index (RSI) rose slightly from 56 on 1 May to 59 on 8 May, reflecting the larger shifts in the market.

Falls in crude oil prices on hopes for a deal to end the war in the Middle East pulled grain prices lower last week. But worries about the impact of dry weather and the potential for an El Niño weather event this year stopped grain prices falling further.

Dec-26 Chicago wheat futures fell 2.7% over the week. Dec-26 Paris milling wheat futures lost more, down 3.1%, due to the euro strengthening against the US dollar.

After reaching their highest level since the end of March on Monday, reports that the US and Iran were nearing an initial peace deal caused crude oil prices to fall (LSEG). The nearby Brent crude oil futures price dropped to $100.09/barrel on Thursday before lifting slightly on Friday after the US and Iran traded fire in the Strait of Hormuz. The contract ended the week at $101.29/barrel.

Welcome rain in the US, France and Germany also added pressure to grain prices at points in the week. But in the US, there is still concern that the rain may have come too late or been too light for winter wheat crops in key areas.

An industry crop tour hosted by the Oklahoma State University estimated the state’s winter wheat crop at 1.3 Mt. This would be 55% lower than last year and the lowest since 2014. Last year, Oklahoma produced 8% of US winter wheat but is currently the winter wheat-growing state worst-affected by drought.

This week, alongside the war in the Middle East, the market will also focus on the first forecasts of global supply and demand in 2026/27 from the USDA. These projections are due tomorrow (12 May) at 5pm BST.

According to polls by Reuters, the market expects the USDA to show global wheat and maize stocks falling in 2026/27 by around 1% and 2% respectively.

If confirmed, projections for lower stocks next season are likely to make markets more sensitive to crop risks in the weeks ahead. But global stocks are currently high, so the market’s reaction will also depend on the extent of any decline and how the projections compare to expectations.

Table 1. Global grain futures prices

The May-26 delivered price for feed wheat in East Anglia at the end of Thursday was unchanged from a week earlier at £190.50/t. Feed barley for the same delivery was £160.50/t; £30.00/t below the feed wheat price.

Meanwhile, the new crop price declined echoing the fall in UK feed wheat futures. The price for feed wheat delivered in East Anglia in Nov-26 fell £5.50/t to £183.50/t.

New crop (Nov-26) bread wheat delivered in the North West was reported at £222.50/t, with delivered Northamptonshire at £212.00/t. These prices equate to premiums of £38.50/t and £28.00/t respectively over the Nov-26 futures price. While lower than the premiums reported for the Nov-25 crop at this point a year ago, they are £2.50/t and £3.00/t higher than those reported a couple of months ago.

Table 2. UK delivered cereal prices

n/a = not available

n/c = no comparison available

Figure 2. Paris rapeseed futures prices, Nov-26 contract (£/tonne)

The Paris rapeseed futures Nov-26 contract decreased by 1.8% in £/t from Thursday (30 April) to Friday (8 May). The percentage decrease in £/t was greater than the decrease in €/t because sterling weakened against the euro.

Prices fell back from the nearest resistance level of £460/t but found support at the 20-day rolling average.

The relative strength index (RSI) increased from 56 on Thursday 30 April to 58 on Friday 8 May and is now closer to the overbought zone (70).

Decreasing crude oil prices put pressure on vegetable oil prices last week, but there were mixed impacts on oilseed prices. Iran and the US moved closer to signing a memorandum that could ease tensions and support nuclear talks.

Oilseed prices were also influenced by changes in speculative traders’ positioning ahead of the publication of the USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on 12 May.

Nearby Brent crude oil futures fell by 6.4% last week, reaching $101.29/barrel. Meanwhile, Dec-26 Chicago soyabean oil futures decreased by 0.7% over the week (Friday-Friday).

However, Chicago soyabean futures Nov-26 increased by 0.6% over the same period.

US net export sales of soyabeans for 2025/26 totalled 141.9 Kt for the week ending 30 April, which was 45% lower than the previous week. A meeting between the US and China is taking place this week. Hopes for the meeting helped Chicago soyabean prices to rise on Friday. The outcome of the meeting could impact the price of Chicago soyabean futures this week.  

The Nov-26 Paris rapeseed contract ended last week down 1.5%, while Winnipeg canola futures saw a slight (less than 0.1%) decrease.

According to a farm survey by Statistics Canada, the country’s canola stocks rose by 27% year-on-year to reach 10.0 Mt by the end of March 2026. This is also the highest March stocks since 2020, driven by larger harvests. However, canola seeding in the Canadian prairies is running late. Favourable weather is needed to achieve the expected 2026 planted area.

The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA) now expects Western Australia’s canola area to rise to a record 2.3 Mha in 2026. This is 290 Kha higher than forecast last month. This rise is driven by good rainfall and high fertiliser costs, with stronger canola prices encouraging a shift away from other crops.

The USDA's WASDE report, due tomorrow, has strong potential to impact the market, with a first look at 2026/27 estimates. According to average trade estimates, global soyabean ending stocks could reach a record high of over 126 Mt in the 2026/27 season. It will be interesting to see how next season's oilseeds supply and demand could be influenced by the war in the Middle East, plus high energy and fertiliser prices.

Table 3. Global oilseed and oil futures prices

*Brent crude oil price per barrel

Rapeseed to be delivered to Erith (Hvst-26) was reported at £446.50/t in Friday’s survey, down £8.00/t from the previous week.

The price for November delivery also decreased by £8.00/t, to £456.50/t. For February 2027 delivery, the price was £459.50/t, down £9.00 on the week.

Table 4. UK delivered rapeseed prices

On Thursday 7 May, we published UK cereal usage data for March, covering human and industrial consumption, as well as GB animal feed production.

Compared to the previous season, the volume of home-grown wheat milled from July to March (including for bioethanol production) decreased by 1.0%. For imported wheat, the volume milled decreased by 30.9% over the same period.

Brewers, maltsters and distillers’ barley usage for the season to date (July–March) was down 19.2% on the same period in 2024/25.

Also, on Thursday 7 May AHDB released estimates for cereal stocks held by merchants, ports and co-ops (MPC) in the UK at the end of February. Compared to the February 2025 figures, the estimated cereal stocks held by MPCs in the UK have fallen. The sharpest falls are for maize (-52%) and imported wheat (-40%), with smaller declines for home-grown cereals.

Defra also reported that less own grown wheat, barley and oats were held on farms in England and Wales at the end of February 2026 than a year earlier. Access these figures and the confidence intervals on Defra’s website.

This Thursday (14 May), HMRC releases the UK trade data for March.

Table 5. Delivered prices into Belfast*

*Prices provided for indicative purposes

**Basis is imported/home-grown

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