Risk management panel debate

How can we plan in a crisis?

Feed, fertiliser, fuel and labour costs have all risen dramatically squeezing margins from profit into loss. With all sectors forced to rein in inputs this will lead to reduced yields and production. Left unchecked, there could be double-digit cuts in output across all sectors of UK food production. Those output cuts could bite as early as the autumn, with wide-scale shortages an even greater likelihood in 2023.

Surging energy prices are central to the potential cutbacks in output. Farming systems depend heavily on energy for fertiliser manufacture, food storage, crop drying, milk pasteurisation and for heating everything from glasshouses to livestock sheds. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, energy costs have gone through the roof.

Fertiliser prices have risen as high as £1,000/t in recent weeks, compared with £250/t a year ago. Farmers are facing key purchasing decisions in the coming weeks and months. New season buying starts from June for arable growers, while livestock and dairy farmers often buy at first-cut silaging.

Ukraine also grows about 10% of the world’s wheat, and exports have slowed to a trickle since February. Next season’s grain crop is shrouded in uncertainty, with men of working age fighting and millions fleeing the country. How this will affect the harvest and what the knock-on effect for next year is difficult to gauge.

Join us for a risk management panel debate to discuss this hugely important topic.

Panellists

Andrew Dewing, independent grain trader from Norfolk

Oliver McIntrye, National Agricultural Strategy Director, Barclays

Rupert Wailes-Fairburn, Divisional Director of Lycetts’ Rural Insurance

Phil Kinch, Dairy farmer

David Eudall, Economics & Analysis Director, AHDB