UK cereals supply and demand estimates

The balance between supply and demand sets the overall tone of the domestic market. We publish forecasts of cereal supply and demand for the UK split into the areas of availability, consumption, exports and stocks.

• The geopolitical backdrop to UK cereal supply and demand estimates has changed since the last estimates were made in March, adding complexity to markets, supply chains and forecasting.
• Following government support, bioethanol production at Ensus resumed in April and these forecasts include usage estimates for the rest of the season (end-June) increasing wheat and, to a lesser extent, maize demand for H&I use.
• 2025/26 closing stocks are forecast lower than previous estimates and in 2024/25 reflecting survey data, market conditions, increased consumption for bioethanol and revisions to estimates of grain fed on farm this season.
• Regional variation complicates the picture with Northern Ireland wheat imports having a considerable impact on the final figures.
• Oat exports continued apace to the end of March; as a result, the forecast is further increased.

Next update: 17 September 2026 (provisional)

Human and industrial, animal feed and cereal stocks datasets, produced by AHDB, are used to underpin these AHDB UK cereals supply and demand estimates.

Data produced by Defra, the Scottish Government, DEARA and HMRC are also critical in compiling the estimates.

All publications from the Defra Farming Statistics Team are available on GOV.UK, along with a publication release calendar listing all pre-announced dates for Defra’s farming statistics.

Information on the data sources used to compile the end-season UK cereals supply and demand estimates can be found here.

For further information please contact the AHDB Market Specialist team at Cereals.MI@ahdb.org.uk.

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