Latest UK cereal supply and demand: May 2026

28 May 2026

Key points

• The geopolitical backdrop to UK cereal supply and demand estimates has changed since the last estimates were made in March, adding complexity to markets, supply chains and forecasting.
• Following government support, bioethanol production at Ensus resumed in April and these forecasts include usage estimates for the rest of the season (end-June) increasing wheat and, to a lesser extent, maize demand for H&I use.
• 2025/26 closing stocks are forecast lower than previous estimates and in 2024/25 reflecting survey data, market conditions, increased consumption for bioethanol and revisions to estimates of grain fed on farm this season.
• Regional variation complicates the picture with Northern Ireland wheat imports having a considerable impact on the final figures.
• Oat exports continued apace to the end of March; as a result, the forecast is further increased.

Introduction

1. This release covers the second official estimates made of UK cereal supply and demand for 2025/26 (see the data download at the bottom of this page).
2. The UK Cereals Supply and Demand Estimates are based on the official production figures for wheat, barley and oats published by Defra in the results of the Cereals and Oilseed Rape Production survey.
3. Total cereals demand for animal feed in 2025/26 is estimated at 13.453 Mt, an increase of 149Kt from March’s estimate and 1% higher than 2024/25. A number of factors are contributing to this positive year-on-year trend including higher consumption by GB Integrated Poultry Units (IPU’s), GB cattle compounders and Northern Ireland (NI) compounders. Cattle compound demand is expected to ease in the final three months of the season whilst IPU’s are forecast to continue the current trend. Estimates of the amount of cereals Fed on Farm have been revised upwards to levels comparable with the previous season. Market comments indicate that grain is less available than had been previously forecast, which all else assumed equal, suggests more has been consumed on farm or that supplies are less than indicated.
4. In 2025/26, total cereals demand by human and industrial (H&I) sectors is estimated at 9.182 Mt, 184 Kt higher than March’s estimate but 12% lower than 2024/25 levels. Following government support, bioethanol production at Ensus resumed in April and is expected to continue this crop year with no indication, as yet, of production beyond this period. This has increased wheat and, to a lesser extent, maize demand for H&I use. Usage data to March shows the expected declines in usage for brewing, malting and distilling (BMD) and flour milling, with forecasts in line with the previous release.

Wheat

5. At 16.188 Mt, total availability of wheat in 2025/26 is 50 Kt higher than March’s estimate but lower than 2024/25. Lower opening stocks and imports than 2024/25, outweigh a rise in the production number set by Defra’s survey. Imports are estimated at 2.250 Mt, 50 Kt higher than the previous estimate, but 818 Kt lower than 2024/25 levels. From July 2025 to March 2026, the UK imported 1.867 Mt of wheat, 536 Kt less than the same point in 2024/25. Regional variation is key with data to end-February showing strong demand for imported wheat to Northern Ireland, and a greater share of UK imports destined for NI ports than last year. The import forecast assumes usage of imported grain will decline in the final three months of the season.
6. In 2025/26, H&I demand for wheat is estimated at 6.640 Mt, up 159 Kt from March’s estimate but 466 Kt down from 2024/25 levels. The increase from the previous estimate is driven by usage of wheat for bioethanol and starch with estimates included for Ensus to the end of June. Lower than forecast flour extraction rates also contribute to the uplift, however, flour production and therefore wheat usage by millers continues to be lower. Demand for wheat by distillers is also in decline as previously forecast.
7. The amount of wheat used in animal feed in 2025/26 is estimated at 7.151 Mt, 136 Kt higher than March’s estimate but 309 Kt up year on year. The increase is driven by data to the end of March, with wheat usage by IPUs remaining strong, and adjustments to more typical levels of Fed on Farm grain. Previous forecasts factored in that lower availability may reduce Fed on Farm this season. But with less wheat in stock on farms in England and Wales (according to Defra’s end-February survey), the inference is that more has been used and therefore Fed on Farm is revised up to more typical levels. Grain fed on farm is not a surveyed element of the balance sheet so carries greater uncertainty; however lower ex-farm price is one of the factors thought to drive on farm use of grain. As previously anticipated, growth in cattle feed production to end-March has slowed, however, the impact on grass growth of current hot temperatures and low rainfall in certain regions may impact usage going forward
8. At 2.079 Mt, the balance of total availability and domestic consumption is 245 Kt down on the previous estimates due to a forecast increase in demand. From July 2025 to March 2026, the UK exported 105 Kt of wheat, down 20% on the year with the pace slowing since January. Full season exports are estimated at 160 Kt, 10 Kt lower than March’s forecast. At 1.919 Mt, commercial end-season stocks are estimated to be 235 Kt lower than March’s forecast, and 61 Kt lower than 2024/25 levels; of this, 1.500 Mt is required as operating stock. Geopolitical factors have impacted grain markets since the previous forecast, resulting in higher usage of wheat and adding complexity to grain markets. Defra stocks data, and anecdotal market conditions supports a lower stock forecast, although variability between regions complicates the overall picture.

Barley

9. In 2025/26 total availability of barley is estimated at 7.835 Mt, 20 Kt lower than the previous forecast and 651 Kt lower than 2024/25 levels. Full season barley imports are estimated at 190 Kt, 20 Kt lower than from March’s estimate and in line with trade data (July-March).
10. At 1.456 Mt, barley H&I usage in 2025/26 is similar (-8 Kt) to the previous estimate and 341 Kt down on the year. The lower trends in BMD demand have continued as anticipated with 2025/26 H&I barley demand expected to be the lowest on records going back to 1990/91. The current cost of living crisis is having a major impact on the BMD sector (both domestically and globally), with several distilleries being mothballed this season.
11. Usage of barley in animal feed in 2025/26 is estimated at 4.457 Mt, up 35 Kt from March’s estimate, but down 43 Kt from levels recorded in 2024/25. Barley has featured heavily in GB compound rations so far this season and was consistent in usage data to March. The amount of barley fed on farm is increased slightly from March’s estimates reflecting the lower on-farm stocks figures, lower ex-farm prices and depressed demand from the BMD sector.
12. The barley supply and demand balance in 2025/26 is 264 Kt lower year on year. Full season barley exports are estimated at 450 Kt, unchanged from previous estimates. Closing stocks of barley are pegged at 1.266 Mt, 47 Kt lower than previous and 13 Kt lower than 2024/25 levels.

Maize

13. In 2025/26, total availability of maize is estimated at 2.386 Mt, up 40 Kt from January’s estimate but 918 Kt lower than 2024/25 levels. The increase in availability from the previous estimates is due to an increase in imports with 1.77Mt imported from July to March.
14. At 557Kt, H&I maize usage is 23 Kt higher than March’s estimate, but 47% down year on year. The restart of bioethanol production drives the increase in demand alongside a slightly higher BMD usage than previously forecast, albeit still lower year on year. Animal feed demand for maize is similar (-4 Kt) to the previous estimate and 197 Kt down on the year. Displacement of maize in feed rations is occurring as forecast.
15. The balance of maize supply and demand in 2025/26 is estimated at 360 Kt, up 20 Kt from previous forecasts but 221 Kt down year on year. Forecast exports are unchanged at 190 Kt with closing stocks at 170 Kt.

Oats

16. Total availability of oats in 2025/26 is estimated at 1.119 Mt, unchanged from March’s estimates but 24 Kt higher year on year. Full season imports are estimated at 15 Kt, unchanged from March, and very similar to 2024/25.
17. In 2025/26, H&I usage of oats is estimated at 528 Kt, marginally higher (9 Kt) than March’s estimate and 37 Kt up on the year. Higher demand for oat products, including for export, is a supportive factor in maintaining the level of demand seen this season. Alongside this, lower conversion rates at mills have been seen when using the 2025 crop versus the very good quality 2024 crop resulting in higher usage. Oat usage in animal feed is slightly lower (-18 Kt) than March’s estimate at 381 Kt but 16 Kt higher year on year. Fed on farm has been reduced from March’s estimate to a level similar to 2024/25, as the higher pace of exports to end-March reduces availability on farm.
18. At 177 Kt, the oats supply and demand balance is similar to March’s forecast, and 28 Kt down on the year. Full season exports have been increased to 90 Kt, taking account of trade data to March, which shows exports at 78 Kt. Closing stocks are down 6 Kt from March and 54 Kt on the year at 87 Kt.

Appendix II shows cumulative usage and trade data to end-March. This release and related information can be found at ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

Download the data, including the latest UK cereal supply and demand estimates (Appendix I) and cumulative monthly usage statistics (Appendix II), below.