UK cereal supply and demand: data sources

The official production figures for wheat, barley and oats are published by Defra in the results of the Cereal and Oilseed Rape Production Survey.

For ‘Other Cereals’, the Defra June survey area data and historic average yields are used to calculate production.

For all cereals, July to June import and export volumes are sourced from HMRC. You can get this data on the AHDB website using the link below.

Full-season usage data for the following are used:

•  GB animal feed compounders and integrated poultry units

• NI animal feed compounders

• The volumes of grain fed on-farm are estimated using information from the previous season and market insight

• UK flour millers (inc. starch and bioethanol)
• UK brewers, maltsters and distillers (BMD)
• UK oat millers

• UK cereal breakfast food manufacturers - companies are surveyed quarterly, with the data solely used for the balance sheets
• UK rye millers - companies are surveyed annually, with the data solely used for the balance sheets

The estimate of commercial end-season stocks is an accumulation of the following information:

• Defra England and Wales on-farm stocks
• Scotland on-farm stocks - data provided by the Scottish Government for the balance sheets
• Northern Ireland on-farm stocks - estimate based on the proportion of stocks held on-farm in England as a percentage of production

• UK merchants, ports and co-operatives stocks

• Stocks held in UK feed wheat futures stores

• Stocks held by processors

The processors include flour millers, BMD, oat millers, animal feed compounders, integrated poultry units, cereal breakfast food manufacturers and rye millers.

This data is collected as part of the GB animal feed and UK human and industrial usage surveys.

Stocks held by flour millers, BMD and oat millers are published as part of the UK human and industrial cereal usage data. Download the data to see the stock information.

In theory, at the end of the season, all official data relating to supplies, usage, trade and stocks should lead to a ‘balanced’ balance sheet.

However, a number of the statistics feeding into the balance sheet are collected via a survey rather than a full census.

As a result, there are going to be margins of error, which leads to an imbalance or a residual/deficit.