Latest UK cereal supply and demand: January 2026

29 January 2026

Key points

• Despite a tighter wheat balance in 2025/26, lacklustre exports lead to relatively average carry-out stocks
• In 2025/26 H&I barley demand drops to the lowest level since records began in 1990/91
• With a drop in H&I demand and competitive domestic feed grains, maize imports fall back further
• More oats are expected to be fed on farm in 2025/26 due to the very mixed picture for quality

Introduction

1. This release covers the second official estimates made of UK cereal supply and demand for 2025/26 (See appendix 1 downloads at the bottom of the page).
2. The UK Cereals Supply and Demand Estimates include the official production figures for wheat, barley and oats published by Defra in the results of the Cereals and Oilseed Rape Production survey.
3. Total cereals demand for animal feed in 2025/26 is estimated at 13.313 Mt, relatively unchanged (-9 Kt) from November’s estimate and just 19 Kt lower than levels recorded in 2024/25. While total usage is relatively unchanged from the previous forecast, there have been some shifts in usage amongst the categories and cereals used. GB compound feed demand for cereals is in fact lower than November’s estimates with pig and poultry feed demand expected to be lower than initially expected, following the trend in usage data to date (up to November 2025). However, GB integrated poultry unit (IPU) demand is expected to be higher than previously estimated as well as NI compound feed usage being slightly up. Cattle feed demand has continued to grow during the first five months of the season. However, despite feed prices remaining relatively low for producers, milk prices have come down considerably. Combine that with spring and therefore grass turn out approaching, it is expected that cattle feed demand will fall during the latter part of the season.   
4. In 2025/26, total cereals demand by human and industrial (H&I) sectors is estimated at 9.169 Mt, 139 Kt lower than November’s estimate and 1.315 Mt down from 2024/25 levels. If realised, this would be the lowest level of total H&I consumption in 20 years. While bioethanol usage remains unchanged from previous estimates, a further drop in brewing, malting and distilling (BMD) demand and flour millers’ usage is expected compared with November’s estimates. The decline on the year is largely driven by the drop in bioethanol demand and BMD demand, with usage by flour millers also expected to be lower compared with 2024/25 levels.

Wheat

5. At 16.138 Mt, total availability of wheat in 2025/26 is estimated to be 122 Kt higher than November’s estimate but 835 Kt lower on the year with lower opening stocks and imports, outweighing a rise in production. Following the release of the Defra Cereals and Oilseed Rape Production survey in December, the final estimate for wheat production in 2025 is 122 Kt higher than AHDB’s provisional estimate and 812 Kt higher year on year, at 11.958 Mt. Imports are estimated at 2.200 Mt, unchanged from the previous estimate, but 868 Kt lower than 2024/25 levels. From July to November 2025, the UK had imported 1.063 Mt of wheat, nearly 400 Kt lower than the same point in 2024/25. While this season milling wheat imports are expected to return to more typical levels, demand for imported feed wheat, mainly into Northern Ireland, is expected to be relatively strong, driven by an increase in poultry feed demand. Imported wheat into Northern Ireland is expected to displace some imported maize.
6. In 2025/26, H&I demand for wheat is estimated at 6.516 Mt, down 54 Kt from November’s estimate and 613 Kt down from 2024/25 levels. The fall from the previous estimate is largely driven by a drop in flour millers’ usage. While flour production is only estimated to be slightly lower than previously expected, extraction rates are higher than originally anticipated, leading to the overall decline. The drop from year earlier levels is largely driven by a fall in demand from the bioethanol sector, with neither UK bioethanol plant currently in operation. As has been widely reported, Vivergo shut down operations in August 2025. Operations at Ensus remain paused following its usual maintenance break in September. In the absence of government incentives for domestic bioethanol production, as yet, it continues to be assumed for these balance sheets that Ensus will remain out of operation for the remainder of the 2025/26 season. As always, bioethanol demand will be monitored closely. Wheat demand by flour millers is also expected to be lower on the year, driven by changing consumer habits and improved extraction rates. With a very functional milling wheat crop this season, the proportion of home-grown wheat included in the grist is expected to come back down to nearer more typical levels. Demand for wheat by distillers remains down, while demand by starch manufacturers is expected to be somewhat buoyant.
7. The amount of wheat used in animal feed in 2025/26 is estimated at 7.085 Mt, 43 Kt higher than November’s estimate and 277 Kt up year on year. Despite a drop in usage by GB compounders, due to a fall in feed production, the rise from the previous estimate is driven by increased demand from IPUs and NI compounders. During the first three months of the season (Jul-Sep), NI compounders used 19% more wheat than the previous season, displacing some maize from rations. With its relative price and with NI poultry feed demand remaining strong, wheat is expected to be a firm favourite in rations this season. The increase on the year is driven by stronger total feed demand as well as higher inclusions, with wheat stealing some demand back off maize in both GB and NI. The amount of wheat fed on farm is unchanged from previous estimates.
8. At 2.218 Mt, the balance of total availability and domestic consumption is 131 Kt up on the previous estimates, largely due to a rise in the final production estimate, but 504 Kt lower on the year in 2025/26. From July to November 2025, the UK exported 69 Kt of wheat. Taking the average pace for the first five months of the season into account, full season exports are estimated at 170 Kt, down 29 Kt from 2024/25 levels. At 2.048 Mt, commercial end-season stocks are estimated to be 67 Kt higher than 2024/25 levels. Taking into account an operating stock requirement of 1.500 Mt and exports to date, this leaves 479 Kt of wheat to either be exported or carried over as free stock into next season.

Barley

9. In 2025/26 total availability of barley is estimated at 7.855 Mt, down 72 Kt from November’s estimate and 631 Kt lower than 2024/25 levels. The final estimate for barley production in 2025 is 72 Kt lower than the provisional estimate and 724 Kt lower year on year at 6.367 Mt. Full season barley imports are estimated at 210 Kt, unchanged from November’s estimate, but 23 Kt lower year on year.
10. At 1.584 Mt, barley H&I usage in 2025/26 is 84 Kt lower than the previous estimate and 214 Kt down on the year. The drop from November’s forecast comes as BMD demand has trended even lower than originally anticipated. If realised, 2025/26 H&I barley demand will be the lowest on records going back to 1990/91. The current cost of living crisis is having a major impact on the BMD sector (both domestically and globally), with several distilleries being moth balled this season.
11. Usage of barley in animal feed in 2025/26 is estimated at 4.347 Mt, up 51 Kt from November’s estimate, but down 147 Kt from levels recorded in 2024/25. While barley has featured heavily in rations during the first half of the season, inclusion rates are expected to come down slightly going forward given its relative price to wheat. The amount of barley fed on farm is expected to be higher than the November estimate, but lower than levels estimated in 2024/25. Despite the smaller domestic crop this season, the mixed quality of the 2025 crop, along with further reductions to H&I demand is partly behind the increase in barley fed on farm usage in comparison with November.
12. The barley supply and demand balance in 2025/26 is 40 Kt down from the previous estimate and 267 Kt lower year on year. Taking into account the export pace to date (Jul-Nov), full season barley exports are estimated at 450 Kt. Closing stocks of barley are pegged at 1.268 Mt, 10 Kt lower than 2024/25 levels.

Maize

13. In 2025/26, total availability of maize is estimated at 2.370 Mt, down 114 Kt from November’s estimate and 934 Kt lower than 2024/25 levels. The drop in availability from the previous estimates and on the year is due to a fall in imports. With a halt in bioethanol demand and domestic cereals pricing competitively for feed, maize imports are expected to be much lower this season at 2.173 Mt.
14. At 557Kt, H&I maize usage is relatively unchanged (-9 Kt) from November’s estimate, but 509 Kt down year on year, driven by the reduction in bioethanol demand. Animal feed demand for maize is 105 Kt lower than the previous estimate and 193 Kt down on the year. The further reduction from the previous estimates is partly driven by lower volumes being fed on farm, along with more wheat being used in NI at the expense of maize.
15. The maize supply and demand balance in 2025/26 is estimated at 340 Kt, unchanged from November but 231 Kt down year on year. Exports have been revised up by 50 Kt since November to 190 Kt, while closing stocks are forecast at 150 Kt, down 50 Kt from the previous estimate.

Oats

16. Total availability of oats in 2025/26 is estimated at 1.119 Mt, down 23 Kt from November’s estimate but 24 Kt higher year on year. Oat production is now estimated at 963 Kt, down 23 Kt from the provisional and 22 Kt lower year on year. Full season imports are estimated at 15 Kt, unchanged from November, and very similar to 2024/25.
17. In 2025/26, H&I usage of oats is estimated at 512 Kt, marginally higher (8 Kt) than November’s estimate and 21 Kt up on the year. No major changes are expected for H&I oat demand this season. Oat usage in animal feed is relatively unchanged from November’s estimate at 411 Kt and 45 Kt higher year on year. The increase on the year is largely driven by an uptick in fed on farm, given the mixed quality of the 2025 crop.
18. At 163 Kt, the oats supply and demand balance is 33 Kt lower than in November, and 42 Kt down on the year. Exports remain unchanged from the previous estimate at 60 Kt, while closing stocks are down 33 Kt from November and 38 Kt on the year at 103 Kt.

Appendix II shows cumulative usage and trade data to end-November. This release and related information can be found at ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets