Latest UK cereal supply and demand: March 2026

26 March 2026

Key points

  • H&I use of wheat and barley is again revised lower with continuing pressure on consumer demand
  • Growth in feed production for the poultry and cattle sectors offsets declines in other species
  • With a drop in H&I demand and competitive domestic feed grains, maize imports fall back further
  • Oats used by H&I processors and exported are both forecast higher than previously

Introduction

  1. This release covers the second official estimates made of UK cereal supply and demand for 2025/26 (see the data download at the bottom of this page).
  2. The UK Cereals Supply and Demand Estimates include the official production figures for wheat, barley and oats published by Defra in the results of the Cereals and Oilseed Rape Production survey.
  3. Total cereals demand for animal feed in 2025/26 is estimated at 13.304 Mt, a minor reduction (-8 Kt) from January’s estimate and 65 Kt lower than 2024/25. GB compound feed usage was supported by cattle feed demand in the first seven months of the season. However, favourable turnout conditions this spring and lower milk prices are expected to slow the growth in cattle feed demand from now on. GB compound feed usage by the pig and poultry sectors is forecast to follow the lower usage trends seen to date. NI compound demand for cereals remains higher year-on-year, particularly impacting wheat usage. Usage from GB Integrated Poultry Units (IPUs) to January was higher than previously estimated and year on year growth is anticipated for the remainder of the season. Demand is also slightly dampened by cereal inclusion rates, which have not increased as quickly as initially forecast, despite lower grain prices.
  4. In 2025/26, total cereals demand by human and industrial (H&I) sectors is estimated at 8.998 Mt, 171 Kt lower than January’s estimate and 1.454 Mt down from 2024/25 levels.* If realised, this would be the lowest level of total H&I consumption on records going back to 1999/00. While bioethanol usage remains unchanged from previous estimates, usage data to January shows lower usage than previously forecast for brewing, malting and distilling (BMD). Flour millers’ usage is also expected to follow lower trends in line with usage data.

Wheat

  1. At 16.138 Mt, total availability of wheat in 2025/26 is unchanged from January’s estimate with lower opening stocks and imports, outweighing a rise in production. Imports are estimated at 2.200 Mt, unchanged from the previous estimate, but 868 Kt lower than 2024/25 levels. From July 2025 to January 2026, the UK had imported 1.521 Mt of wheat, 443 Kt lower than the same point in 2024/25. While imports have been above the average pace so far this season a slowing of pace is forecast, reflecting lower demand. Northern Ireland feed demand for wheat is expected to be relatively strong, with maize displaced in rations as the season progresses.
  2. In 2025/26, H&I demand for wheat is estimated at 6.481 Mt, down 35 Kt from January’s estimate and 625 Kt down from 2024/25 levels. The fall from the previous estimate is largely driven by a further drop in flour millers’ usage, continuing the trends seen so far this season (Jul-Jan). Flour production is lower year on year due to changing consumer trends, with wheat usage down further due to better extraction rates being achieved. In line with this, the use of home-grown wheat in the grist has also increased to more typical levels. Usage of wheat for bioethanol production is not expected for the remainder of the season as it continues to be assumed that Ensus will remain out of operation. Demand for wheat by distillers continues to be lower, while good demand by starch manufacturers slightly offsets an overall subdued H&I usage outlook.
  3. The amount of wheat used in animal feed in 2025/26 is estimated at 7.014 Mt, 71 Kt lower than January’s estimate but 172 Kt up year on year. The reduction is driven by trends to the end of January and more certainty around spring weather. Usage by IPUs and NI compounders continues drive demand, partially offset by poorer demand from pigs and GB poultry compound feed. The proportion of wheat in the ration has also not increased as much as previously forecast, which lowers overall usage. Strong growth in cattle feed production to date is expected to be tempered by the recent milder weather conditions, which are conducive to a timely turnout to grass. The decline in milk prices and potentially increased input costs may encourage this further. The amount of wheat fed on farm is unchanged from previous estimates.
  4. At 2.324 Mt, the balance of total availability and domestic consumption is 106 Kt up on the previous estimates due to a forecast reduction in demand, but 387Kt lower than 2024/25. From July 2025 to January 2026, the UK exported 88 Kt of wheat, almost unchanged year on year. Full season exports are estimated at 170 Kt, unchanged from January’s forecast and down 29 Kt from 2024/25 levels. At 2.154 Mt, commercial end-season stocks are estimated to be 174 Kt higher than 2024/25 levels; of this, 1.500 Mt is required as operating stock.

Barley

  1. In 2025/26 total availability of barley is estimated at 7.855 Mt, unchanged from the previous forecast and 631 Kt lower than 2024/25 levels. Full season barley imports are estimated at 210 Kt, unchanged from January’s estimate, but 23 Kt lower year on year.
  2. At 1.464 Mt, barley H&I usage in 2025/26 is 120 Kt lower than the previous estimate and 333 Kt down on the year. The drop from January’s forecast is supported by lower trends in BMD demand than anticipated. If realised, 2025/26 H&I barley demand will be the lowest on records going back to 1990/91. The current cost of living crisis is having a major impact on the BMD sector (both domestically and globally), with several distilleries being moth balled this season.
  3. Usage of barley in animal feed in 2025/26 is estimated at 4.423 Mt, up 75 Kt from January’s estimate, but down 77 Kt from levels recorded in 2024/25. Barley has featured heavily in GB compound rations so far this season and held firm in January’s data. The trend is stronger than initially forecast, leading to the increase from January’s estimates. The amount of barley fed on farm is increased slightly from January mirroring the trend in compound feed and supported by the lack of demand from the BMD sector.
  4. The barley supply and demand balance in 2025/26 is 45 Kt up from the previous estimate but 217 Kt lower year on year. Accounting for the export pace to date (Jul-Jan), full season barley exports are estimated at 450 Kt. Closing stocks of barley are pegged at 1.313 Mt, 34 Kt higher than 2024/25 levels.

Maize

  1. In 2025/26, total availability of maize is estimated at 2.347 Mt, down 23 Kt from January’s estimate and 957 Kt lower than 2024/25 levels. The drop in availability from the previous estimates and on the year is due to a fall in imports. With a halt in bioethanol demand and domestic cereals pricing competitively for feed, maize imports are expected to be much lower this season at 2.150 Mt.
  2. At 534Kt, H&I maize usage is 23 Kt lower than January’s estimate, but 523 Kt down year on year, driven by the reduction in bioethanol demand and smaller declines in BMD usage. Animal feed demand for maize is unchanged from the previous estimate and 193 Kt down on the year. Displacement of maize in feed rations is occurring as forecast, particularly in Northern Ireland, where season usage to the end of December is 9% lower year on year.
  3. The maize supply and demand balance in 2025/26 is estimated at 340 Kt, unchanged from previous forecasts but 241 Kt down year-on-year. Forecast exports and closing stocks are unchanged at 190 Kt and 150 Kt respectively.

Oats

  1. Total availability of oats in 2025/26 is estimated at 1.119 Mt, unchanged from January’s estimates but 24 Kt higher year-on-year. Full season imports are estimated at 15 Kt, unchanged from January, and very similar to 2024/25.
  2. In 2025/26, H&I usage of oats is estimated at 519 Kt, marginally higher (6 Kt) than January’s estimate and 28 Kt up on the year. A year-on-year increase in H&I oat usage (+8%) up to end-December and anticipated demand for the remainder of the season leads to an uplift in the forecast. Higher demand for oat products, including for export, is a supportive factor. In addition, conversion rates at mills are also slightly lower year-on-year following the very good quality in 2024 as whilst the 2025 crop quality is good, 2024 was very good. Oat usage in animal feed is slightly lower (-12 Kt) than January’s estimate at 399 Kt but 34 Kt higher year on year. Whilst still higher than 2024/25, fed on farm has been reduced from January’s estimate as an uptick in H&I demand and exports reduces availability on farm.
  3. At 168 Kt, the oats supply and demand balance is similar to January’s forecast, and 37 Kt down on the year. Full season exports have been increased to 75 Kt, taking account of trade data to January which shows exports at 54 Kt. Closing stocks are down 10 Kt from January and 48 Kt on the year at 93 Kt.

* These estimates were made before the government’s announcement [link to UK Government website] of support for the Ensus bioethanol plant to resume production to bolster UK CO2 availability. CO2 is a byproduct of bioethanol production and availability has been disrupted by the war in Iran. This could benefit UK H&I cereal demand, though when production resumes remains to be seen.

Appendix II shows cumulative usage and trade data to end-January. This release and related information can be found at ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

Download the data

Download the data, including the latest UK cereal supply and demand estimates (Appendix I) and cumulative monthly usage statistics (Appendix II), below.

Download the March data (Excel)

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