Agri Market Outlook: The long view

January 2022

It is likely that the economy will continue to recover during 2022. To examine what is likely to happen with the key variables, economic growth, unemployment and inflation, we will look at recent trends and then predict the likely direction of travel for the remainder of 2022.

Economic Outlook - January 2022

What does 2022 hold for the UK economy? It is not only experiencing the aftershocks of EU Exit but also the massive impact of a global pandemic that is showing little sign of abating at the time of writing. The pandemic has been unusual in economic shock terms both in its speed of onset and its magnitude, as well as it’s uneven impact across the economy as a whole. The agricultural industry has been particularly hard hit in a number of areas.

In the meantime, our domestic agricultural policy continues to take shape. We know that as the economy recovers, the environment will again be at the front and centre of future farming policy, and we know that broader environmental policies will also shape our industry. The environmental impact of farming can sometimes be overstated, but our industry does use fuel, fertiliser and feed. With climate change moving from political rhetoric into policy reality, we can’t ignore emerging policy. The more environmentally focussed articles below first appeared in our outlook in July.

Environment – Sustainable Farming Incentive and Carbon Outlook

Climate change has made the leap from political rhetoric into policy reality. It’s an issue that will increasingly manifest itself in national and international policy decisions, as well as supply chain standards. At the same time, there is an industry commitment to a path towards Net Zero emissions. Farm businesses will have to balance environmental sustainability with the impact on production systems and financial viability. Farmers and growers will need to navigate a new and uncertain policy landscape, which may reward some practices (via future agricultural policy) and penalise others. This article aims to explain how farming carbon may become central to every farm business.

Consumers and the Environment

Consumer food choices can be influenced by a multitude of factors. Typically taste and enjoyment are the key motivators for consumer’s meal choices but consumers are complex and there can often be multiple factors below the surface that influence purchase decisions. Climate change and the environmental impact of food production is one area where there has been growing interest from consumers. This article examines consumers relationship with the environment and subsequent impact on food choices.