Agri Market Outlook: The long view

July 2020

We all have an idea of what we want to achieve in our farming businesses and if we’re honest, uncertainty about coronavirus, trade policy or climate probably doesn’t make us re-think those ambitions. However, how we react and respond to these uncertainties does impact our ability to get to our goals – what challenges might we face on the way, how quickly we can achieve them and even how realistic our initial thinking might have been? In any journey, we’re plotting the route, anticipating the bumps in the road or the changes in direction. And critically, we always look ahead. That forward view is no less vital in managing our farm businesses, anticipating the changes that are coming, assessing the potential impacts and planning ahead. All are fundamental to preparing for the challenges that will impact our industry in future.

To help with planning ahead, AHDB have looked at three specific scenarios. As we’ve highlighted, uncertainty is a key theme of these outlooks and the purpose of these scenarios is to capture the range of possible repercussions for farming sectors. Highlighting how farming fortunes will be impacted by differing economic, policy or even coronavirus outcomes is intended to help support broader planning by farm businesses.

Red meat

What are five of the main factors that will influence the red meat sector in the coming years, particularly in light of the two major events of 2020, the coronavirus outbreak, and the upcoming deadline for Brexit?

The UK’s new trading relationship with the world; increased focus on the environment, from government and consumers; removal of direct support; more volatile weather; growing global demand, but a mature domestic market.


Dairy

A contraction in world trade, uncertain UK trading conditions, domestic consumers changing how they consume dairy and ever-challenging weather extremes. In this article we take a long-term view of what could shape the UK dairy industry over the coming years, and how to best equip ourselves to take advantage.


Arable

For all arable crops, a farming business and processer can only manage what is in their control and understand their market as far as forward pricing will allow. But even though some decisions made out of our control impact a business, we still have the ability to plan for these changes ahead of time.

In order to navigate the way through the challenges ahead knowing your costs, understanding your cash flow and budget, knowing your end market and knowing how to manage risk in all its forms will place a business in a position to react to the developing new arable market place for 2020 and beyond.


Consumer trends

This article looks at how we expect consumer trends to develop over the next 18 months, as part of the Agri Market Outlook 2020.We expect to see some re-evaluation about what is important to consumers.

Factors such as a slow recovery in the in the eating out market, price conscious shopping and a possible acceleration in the food delivery and takeaway market are explored. 


Policy

This article looks at the challenges UK agriculture is facing, and how the industry may respond in the coming months and years.

We focus on what farmers can control, and how they can best prepare for these changes.


Agri Market Outlook: July 2020