What’s driven the global beef market in 2024 and a look ahead to 2025

Key points

• EU cattle supplies are tightening and forecast to continue to reduce into 2025.
• US cattle numbers are in decline whilst domestic consumption strengthens, leading to firm import demand from the region.
• Production in Brazil peaked in 2024, with slight easing expected for 2025.
• Australian slaughter has reached new highs, bolstering exports.
• China’s imports increased in 2024, lending support to the global market.

EU

EU beef production grew in the first half of 2024, driven by strong prices and resilient demand. However, the European Commission (EC) are forecasting a slight decline in beef production in 2024, down 0.5% year-on-year, as structural contraction in the breeding herds plays into slaughter cattle availability. This easing of production is expected to continue into 2025, with the EC forecasting down 1% year-on-year, as herds continue to contract. Drivers for this include increasing environmental regulation and an ageing farmer population, among others. This tightness in supply is expected to offer support to European cattle prices generally.

The UK is the most important trading partner with the EU for beef. The UK receives the greatest export volumes from the EU but also holds the largest market share of EU imports. Tightness in EU supply may strengthen import demand and offer opportunities for UK product.

US

Domestic beef production in the US so far in 2024 (Jan-Oct) has been stable compared to the same period of 2024. However, this has been almost entirely supported by increased carcase weights, as significant reductions in cow slaughter have lowered cattle slaughter rates.

The US is currently hosting record low cattle inventories, following several years of liquidation due to climactic and financial pressures. This has contributed to US cattle and beef prices climbing to record highs in 2024. Questions remain over when the national herd will begin to be rebuilt, with risk of drought a key limiting factor. Further reductions are expected in the US cattle herd for the foreseeable future, with the USDA forecasting a 4% decline in production in 2025 versus 2024. It is currently expected to take several years before US production returns to growth.

US demand for beef has been strong throughout 2024, despite (and further supporting) record high domestic prices. The USDA US consumption figure for 2024 is up 3% on the year previous, a record high. The combination of strength in consumption and limited domestic production has increased the US’s import demand through 2024.

Australia has become the largest importer to the US in 2024, growing their market share to 23% in 2024 (YTD), up from 16% in the same period of 2023. Growth in import volumes and market share have also been seen from Brazil and Uruguay. Conversely, Canada and New Zealand have lost market share in the US, despite increasing their imports volumes year on year (Jan-Oct 2024 vs 23).

Whilst trade between the US and the UK is limited, there are implications of this key market on our own. Import demand from the US for product from Australia and South America, for example, is likely to supersede the UK, as a much more lucrative market. This could potentially restrict the volume of product from these regions that is available on the global market and sent to the UK. Equally, the anticipated strength of the US beef market in 2025 is expected to be a key upward driver of markets and prices globally.

Brazil

Production is expected to peak in Brazil in 2024, with the USDA forecasting the year to total 11.9 million tonnes of beef and veal. This high supply has put downward pressure on Brazilian beef prices, which has in turn increased both domestic consumption of beef and exports to the global market.

Brazil is a key global exporter of beef, with 2.3 million tonnes of fresh/frozen product exported so far in 2024 (Jan-Nov). Just over half of this product is destined for China, with several other regions then taking smaller market shares. The US is Brazil’s next greatest export destination taking only 7% of Brazil’s exports by volume, followed by the United Arab Emirates.

Looking forward, Brazilian beef production is expected to ease slightly in 2025. Combined with increased domestic demand, this may slightly reduce their capacity to export, however they will remain a dominant player in global beef trade.

Australia

Australian cattle slaughter has been high throughout 2024 as they move towards the peak of their cattle cycle. This high slaughter, combined with more competitive cattle prices has facilitated greater export of beef into key markets such as the US, Japan and China. We have also seen an increase in Australia’s live trade in 2024, with cattle moving across the water to Asian counties such as Indonesia and Vietnam.

Looking forward, it is expected that the Australian cattle herd will begin to contract in 2025, as producers move into a liquidation phase following years of restocking. Beef production is expected to grow by a further 1% in 2025 as a result – supported by greater cow slaughter – before falling in 2026. The expectation for a tighter US market is expected to offer opportunity for Australian product both directly into the US and into key Asian markets where the US competes for market share such as Japan and South Korea.

China

Despite beef making up just over 10% of protein consumed in the country, China is the largest global importer of beef, with a substantial impact on the global market. There is sizeable domestic production of beef, although this doesn’t meet consumption levels, therefore maintaining import demand. Large inventories built up from growth in imports in 2023 have depressed farmgate prices this year and led to herd liquidation. However, reports suggest this liquidation is expected to slow in 2025, leading to lower beef production and price growth.

Beef imports into China have grown almost 3% year on year, for the 2024 year to date (Jan-Oct), with the biggest increases coming from the two largest importers, Brazil and Argentina.  Per capita consumption has lifted as Chinese retail prices eased slightly, supporting demand. Forecasts suggest a slight increase in import demand for 2025, which has potential to support prices on the global market.

What does this all mean for the global beef market in 2025?

We have seen a bumper year for global beef production in 2024, with many countries reaching peaks in production supported by strong demand. Looking forward to 2025, production is forecast to ease across many of the key beef producers, whilst expectations are for demand to remain fairly strong. This points to strength in beef prices across the globe as demand competes for available supplies.

We will be releasing the next round of domestic market outlooks for each of our sectors (including beef) in February 2025. These will give greater detail on our forecasts for production, as well as international trade and domestic demand for the coming year and beyond.

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