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USDA meat production forecasts remain in growth
Thursday, 4 August 2022
The latest USDA outlook for global pork, beef and chicken production and trade has been released. Below are the key headlines for each sector.
Pork
Global pork production for 2022 is forecast to grow 3%, as increased production in China (+9%) offsets declines seen in the EU (-4%) and US (-2%) as slowing export opportunities weigh on prices.
Global pork exports are expected to fall 13% in 2022. The decline is primarily driven by a reduction in Chinese imports which are forecast to total 2.2 million tonnes in 2022, half the amount imported in 2021. The sharp plunge in demand from China leaves major exporters such as the EU, Brazil, and the US searching for markets to offset diminished trade. Demand is forecast to increase in South Korea, Mexico, Japan, and the Philippines, but these alternative markets cannot entirely absorb the sizeable loss of volume from China.
Beef
Global beef production for 2022 is forecast to grow 1% as elevated prices continue to incentivize slaughter among major producers. Improved rainfall in Australia means production is expected to grow 9% compared to 2021, still low compared to historic levels, but a significant increase from last year’s record low. Brazil is also expected to see strong growth in 2022 with production forecast up 4% on last year.
Although globally beef import demand remains strong as countries lift COVID-19 restrictions, inflationary pressures and continuing logistical issues have lowered initial forecasts. Global beef exports are forecast to grow 4% in 2022. Brazil is expected to export a greater portion of its production to China, Egypt, and the US on the back of firm demand, with China specifically forecast to import 3% more beef in 2022.
Chicken
Global production of chicken meat is forecast to remain flat in 2022. Inflation is expected to weaken domestic demand in Brazil, Chinese consumers are returning to their preference for pork, and the EU continues to grapple with high feed prices and the impact of highly pathogenic avian influenza.
Despite reduced shipments from the EU (-9%), Ukraine (-21%) and UK (-24%), global exports of chicken meat are forecast to grow 1% in 2022. This is as a result of reduced domestic demand in Brazil and China, where exports for 2022 are anticipated to grow by 9% and 20% respectively.
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