UK pork production growth accelerates

By Bethan Wilkins

UK pig meat production was exceptionally strong in March, with output reaching 97,900 tonnes during the month, according to the latest figures from Defra. This is 15% higher than March 2020. It is worth noting that March this year has an extra weekday, which accounts for some of the growth, but even adjusted for weekdays, the increase is still about 10%.

A combination of factors contributed to the growth. Clean pig slaughter was up by 12% at 1.06 million head, which is still equates to a 7% increase when taking account of the extra weekday. This indicates that the industry has been working through the backlog that developed towards the end of last year. This is a little earlier than we had anticipated in the forecast and means the growth in slaughter levels we forecast for Q2 is now likely to be lower than our forecast. Breeding herd productivity also appears to have been lower than expected at the end of 2020, which may again dampen supply growth in the coming weeks.

The slaughter pace was highest in England and Wales, where 14% more pigs were killed compared to March 2020. Growth in Scotland stood at 7% while Northern Ireland recorded a 5% increase.

As well as the larger number of clean pigs processed, they were also, on average, heavier than last year. The average carcase weight of 88.6kg was 2kg higher than a year before, although lower than the previous two months.

In addition, with the difficulties marketing sows seen in previous months easing, sow slaughter was elevated. Throughput during the month totalled 27,000 head, 27% (or 5,700 head) more than last March. So far this year, about 3,600 more sows have been slaughtered than in the first three months of 2020. With the rate of culling disrupted late last year and in early 2021, we would expect to see higher numbers coming through going forward. Poor profitability might also encourage some contraction in the breeding herd, which could also boost culling levels.

We will be reviewing our forecast for UK pig slaughter and production in the next couple of weeks. Look out for this to read more about the implications of many of the factors highlighted above in more detail.

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