Spring Grain Market Outlook roundup: Grain market daily

• UK feed wheat futures (May-22) gained £7.00/t yesterday, to close at another contract high of £332.00/t. New crop futures (Nov-22) gained £5.70/t yesterday, to close at £293.25/t. This is also a contract high.
• Gains followed Paris and Chicago wheat contracts, trading higher on US crop concerns. On Monday, the USDA released the latest winter wheat conditions up to 24 April. These fell 3 percentage points (pp) week-on-week, to 27% ‘good’ to ‘excellent’. US spring wheat planting is also behind last year and the 5-year average (2017 to 2021).
• Paris rapeseed (Nov-22) gained €22.00/t yesterday, to close at €856.50/t.
• Statistics Canada released their principal field crop areas yesterday, detailing planting intentions collected through March. Rapeseed and barley are key crops set to lose out in area to wheat, maize, oats, lentils and soyabeans. The report detailed soil moisture in some areas of Western Canada has returned to normal, but some areas remain dry.

Yesterday we held our AHDB Spring Grain Market Outlook webinar. If you missed this, don’t worry!  Some key messages are summarised below. You can also watch the recording too, using the video link.

Market outlook remains bullish for cereals and oilseeds

There may be little surprise that we are heading into next season with a tight supply and demand balance for global grains and oilseeds. As such, this will likely support prices at a high level into next season across the board. While some harvest pressure should be felt, there is fundamental support and a strong floor to the market.

The war between Russia and Ukraine is a key factor in further tightening global wheat, maize and sun-oil supply specifically. This is playing into difficult trading dynamics as well as contributing to higher prices.

In the domestic market, a tight supply and demand picture is also true. The domestic market is following global market movements closely.

UK Crops in the ground do look to be in good condition. However, but with a challenging global market, wheat imports could be more difficult next season. Demand for grains is a watch point in terms of the bioethanol industry, as well as squeezed livestock margins.

A more detailed outlook for grains and oilseeds will be published this Thursday and Friday.

No silver bullet to offsetting high input prices

Mark Topliff gave a very interesting insight into how to manage high input prices, especially relevant this year regarding fertiliser prices.

Short term strategies include shopping around for inputs and adjusting fertiliser and chemical application rates and timings. Medium to long-term strategies to manage input costs include reviewing your rotation, cover crops and benchmarking.

Tools are available on the AHDB website to help.

The Sustainable Farming Incentive

David Swales presented some findings on the Sustainable Farming Incentive, walking us through the introductory and intermediate requirements for the scheme.

Using some example farms, David explains net payments and costs for example farms over a three-year period when joining the scheme.

To find the full report, you can access this here.

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