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September milk production returns to growth
Thursday, 13 October 2022
September GB milk deliveries are estimated at 981 million litres based on daily delivery data. This is 0.6% above last year’s 5-year low of 975 million litres and just under (-0.4%) the 5-year average for the month.
In the final 10 days of the month, average daily deliveries were 33.3m litres per day, a 1.8% increase on last year, a period of low yields. In September 2021, farmers had been dealing with a long period of rising feed prices, along with escalating energy and fertiliser prices - but in the absence of rising milk prices.
The higher deliveries seen through September are likely the result of more favourable weather and improved grass growth. Data from AHDB’s Forage for Knowledge highlights the boost in grass growth in both the early and latter parts of the month, which ties into periods of higher average daily deliveries.
The latest forecast for GB milk production (2022/23 season) puts total production down 0.8% on last year, with the possibility of further reductions if herds are rationalised to save on feed costs. While September production looks to have benefitted from good grass growth, the risk remains that yields will revert to the trends we’ve seen through the year should higher feed purchases strain working capital.
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