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New Zealand's MPI forecasts lower exports of beef and lamb in 2022/23
Thursday, 7 July 2022
In the latest outlook from New Zealand’s Ministry for Primary Industries, meat and wool export revenue is forecast to increase by 18% for 2021/22. This is higher than previously expected due to a sharp increase in global prices.
According to the report, beef, lamb and mutton prices have surged due to tight global supply, food service reopening and demand recovering strongly. However, some factors may limit further price increases, such as ongoing global freight issues and the current COVID-19 outbreak in China. Strong wool prices have partially recovered this year, reflecting the start of the wool sector’s recovery to pre-pandemic levels.
The ministry sees growing demand for meat protein from developing countries continuing to support export prices. It also reports “a renewed interest in red meat in high-income countries as customers focus on the quality and micronutrient content of food in response to increased focus on health during the pandemic. In addition, rising animal feed costs also have the potential to increase New Zealand’s price competitiveness due to the high proportion of animals being grass-fed.”
Despite pork production having partially recovered from African Swine Fever in China, ASF-related demand is expected to continue until a successful vaccine is developed. In addition, a reduction in the global cow herd and a range of export restrictions in key exporting countries is leading to tight global beef supplies.
“Export volumes for beef, mutton and wool are forecast to decline in 2022/23 in line with the long-term declining trend. Uncertainty regarding value and volume forecasts is elevated, and high volatility is expected over the coming year as global disruption alters production and trade flows and freight remains under severe pressure.”
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