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How do May's crop conditions compare to last year? Grain Market Daily

Friday, 22 May 2020

Today is the release of the latest ADAS crop condition report which covers the crop season through to the middle of May 2020. This report provides information on the crop development of both winter and spring cereals and oilseeds, be sure to check out the crop development page on the website for more information.

Market Commentary

  • UK wheat futures (Nov-20) closed yesterday at £170.45/t, gaining £1.20/t on Wednesday’s close.
  • Paris wheat futures (Dec-20) closed yesterday at €191.50/t, gaining €1.75/t on Wednesday’s close.
  • US soyabean futures closed yesterday at $306.81/t, down $4.32/t on Wednesday’s close. As tension rise with the US and China over the coronavirus there is anxieties that will dampen Chinese demand for US supplies.
  • Have you checked out the AHDB’s Strategic farm week? Which will be running from the 1st June 2020. Click here to find out more.

Anthony Speight

Analyst

Wheat

Winter

 

In the latest ADAS Crop Condition report, 26% of winter wheat is rated ‘very poor’ or ‘poor’, this is a considerably large increase from last year when it was 5%. Furthermore, conditions have got worse since the March report when this figure was 18%.

Current 43% is rated ‘fair’, when this time last year that figure was only 13%. There is also an increase on March’s report where 27% was rated ‘fair’.

31% has been rated ‘good’ or ‘excellent, a considerable decrease on last year when this figure was 83%. There has also been a revision down from March’s figure which was 49%.

Spring

In the latest report 33% was rated ‘very poor’ or ‘poor’. A large increase on the 2% from this time last year. 45% has been rated ‘fair’, considerably higher than last year when this was 6%. 22% has been rated at ‘good’ or ‘excellent’, a large reduction on last year when this figure was 92%.

OSR

The AHDB Early Bird Survey re-run in February estimated that the OSR area had reduced by 45kha from December’s survey to reach 361kha.

ADAS suggest that since February an additional 25Kha has been lost, or not planted in the case of planned spring OSR. This would suggest an OSR area of circa 336kha at mid-May, nearly 200kha lower than last year’s crop area.

The worse affected areas are reported to be in southern England, the East of England, East Midlands and Yorkshire, where 20-30% of the crops are in very poor condition.

Winter

   

In the latest report 41% of winter OSR was rated ‘very poor’ or ‘poor’. There is the expectation that of the 15% in a ‘very poor’ condition, there will be large yield reductions compared to normal.

This is significantly up from this time last year when was 19% rated ‘very poor’ or ‘poor’. There has even been an increase from March’s report where this figure was at 37%.

In the latest report 39% was rated ‘fair’, this is up from 32% from last year. There has also been an increase from March’s report which was at 37%.

Only 20% of has been rated ‘good’ or ‘excellent’, this is a significant reduction on last year when this was at 50%. There has also been a reduction on last March’s report which was 26%.

Spring

In the latest report 40% of spring OSR was rated ‘very poor’ or ‘poor’. This is a considerable increase on last year when this figure was 21%.

31% was rated ‘fair’, this is only a slight reduction on last year where this was at 35%.

Moreover, 28% in the latest report was rated ‘good’ or ‘excellent’. This is a reduction on last year when this was at 43%.

Barley

Winter

In the latest report 27% was rated ‘very poor’ or ‘poor’, this is considerably higher than last May when it was only 1%. There has also been an increase on March’s report where this figure was 18%.

48% has been rated ‘fair’, again a considerable uplift from last year when this figure was only 11%. There has also been an increase on March’s figure which was 37%.

25% of winter barley has been rated ‘good’ or ‘excellent’, only a fraction of this time last year when this figure was at 89%. There has also been a considerable revision from March’s report when this figure was at 45%.

Spring

In the latest report 13% is rated ‘very poor’ or ‘poor’, this is up from last year when this figure was only 3%.

38% has been rated at ‘fair’, this is up from last year where this figure was only 21%.

Finally, 48% has been rated as ‘good’ or ‘excellent’, considerably lower when this figure was 75%.

Concluding thoughts

From large amount of rain throughout autumn and winter to a prolonged spring dryness. The weather has been against the grower throughout this season.

As planting and growing conditions were ideal last year this make’s the UK situation seem just that little bit worse.

What is key to note is that from mid- autumn it has been anticipated that the UK was going to be in a wheat deficit for next year, but this recent crop development report make this deficit seems possibly larger than anticipated if crops remain in an unfavourable condition.

 

 


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