Have we had enough rain in May for a large wheat crop? Grain market daily

Market commentary

• UK feed wheat futures (Nov-23) closed yesterday at £193.00/t, gaining £0.80/t from Monday’s close. The Nov-24 contract closed at £201.45/t, gaining £2.00/t over the same period.
• Our domestic market followed the Chicago wheat market up. Paris wheat futures ended mixed. Driving the gains in wheat markets yesterday was the attack on the dam in southern Ukraine, which heightened worries about an escalation to the war.
• Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-23) closed yesterday €433.50/t, gaining €5.00/t from Monday’s close. Rapeseed rose with Chicago soyabeans, which gained from the first USDA weekly crop condition report for soyabeans, which pegged 62% of the US soyabean crop at good-to-excellent condition as at 4 June, below trade expectations.

Have we had enough rain in May for a large wheat crop?

UK weather in spring can be an indicator for national wheat yields and at times people can reiterate that old farming adage of “wet and cold May plenty of corn and hay”. However, spring 2021 went against that saying when we had the wettest and coldest May of the century, with the UK wheat yield coming in at 7.8t/ha, slightly below the previous five-year average (2016–2020).

There are many parameters throughout the growing season that can influence yields. However spring weather is a watchpoint, as winter wheat enters the construction phase of growth and this accelerates towards the end of April. Half of total growth will occur in this phase, as the dry matter produced in this period supports root growth and organs vital to grain production.

Was the rain in May enough for a large wheat crop?

At the start of May the unsettled weather continued, including heavy showers. However, by the middle of the month it had somewhat dried up, with little rainfall since. Latest data from the Met Office indicates that the UK received 39 mm of rain in the month of May, the second lowest this decade, behind 2020 when rainfall was 32.8 mm. Despite May’s deficits, accumulated rainfall in the UK over spring (March to May) has totalled 240.8 mm, 18% higher than the previous five-year average. This accumulation of rainfall is comparable to 2014, 2015 and 2019 when UK wheat yields averaged 8.6-9.0 t/ha during these years.

Therefore, is the lack of rainfall in May really that problematic for crops? As at 30 May 2023, 85% of winter wheat was rated good-to-excellent in AHDB’s latest crop development report, ahead of 82% at the same point last season. Further to that, with rainfall earlier in May and then the subsequent sunny and mild conditions, crops are reported to be looking well and yield prospects are good to above average. This information reaffirms that the UK has the potential to produce a large wheat crop this coming harvest, with a potential of 15.5 – 16.0 Mt expected (based off expected planted area and higher than average yields). However, it’s important to note that, after the wet start to spring, some areas are almost looking too dry now; this could have an impact on final yields and is a watch point. The final output for 2023 will very much depend on the weather over the next couple of months as well as the final planted area.

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