Wet and cold May, plenty of corn and hay? Grain Market Daily

Market Commentary

• New crop UK wheat futures (Nov-21) closed yesterday at £176.50/t, down £0.10/t on Wednesday’s close.
• The Chicago maize (Dec-21) and wheat (Dec-21) market was slightly pressured yesterday even though the global market still remains cautious over weather prospects in the U.S. and Brazil crops in a time of tightening global availability.
• The continental market encapsulated supported as the euro weakened against both the dollar and sterling.
• Paris milling wheat futures (Dec-21) gained €0.50/t yesterday to close at €214.50/t. Forex closed yesterday at £1 = €1.1629.
• Russia’s Agriculture ministry expects the country’s 2021 wheat crop at 81Mt, unchanged from May’s estimates.
• The AHDB Planting and Variety Survey provides the only pre-harvest planting view of grain and oilseed crops. 

Wet and cold May, plenty of corn and hay? 

Spring weather can indicate possible yields of our domestic wheat crop, which is expected to rebound for harvest 2021.

With a wet and cold May, will the old farming adage provide the UK with plenty of corn and hay?

In spring, winter wheat enters the construction phase of growth and this accelerates towards the end of April. Half of total growth will occur in this phase, as the dry matter produced in this period supports root growth and organs vital to grain production.

The wettest and coldest this century…

Data from the Met Office shows that May 2021 has been the wettest and coldest this century.

With 119.5mm of rainfall in the UK throughout May, this is the 4th wettest since records began in 1862, but does this have any connection to the yields of our wheat crop?

As the graph displays there isn’t a definitive positive correlation between rain in May and wheat yields.

For example, in 2007 the UK had 114.2mm (2nd highest, 2000-2021) of rainfall and a mean temperature of 10.6°C (8th lowest, 2000-2021) and the national yield was 7.2t/ha (18th highest, 2000-2021).

However, in contrast in 2015 the UK had 109.9mm (4th highest, 2000-2021) of rainfall and a mean temperature of 9.5°C (2nd lowest, 2000-2021) and the national yield was 9.0t/ha, the highest this century.

The stark difference between these two years is the difference in total duration of bright sunshine in June. For 2007, this was 140.6 hours (19th highest, 2000-2020) and in 2015 there was 188.7 hours (6th highest, 2000-2020).

However, wet weather can also bring increased disease pressure, such as Rust and Septoria. More information can be found at our integrated pest management of cereal diseases on the AHDB website.

A flaming June for 2021?

As we start June, winter wheat will start to flower and swell from water uptake.

We have had a significant amount of rain in May. However, sub-optimal photosynthesis during the first 2-3 weeks of grain growth will reduce cell numbers and potential weight of each grain.

Although there is an array of other factors that will affect yield, sunshine hours in June will be crucial to capitalise on May’s rains.

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