Global milk supplies forecast to remain flat

Wednesday, 20 April 2022

Following a low growth year in 2021, where global milk production[1] was up only 0.8%, 2022 is not looking to fare any better. Updated forecasts for the coming year now see global milk production remaining flat on the year. This is down from the 0.6% annual growth which was forecasted in January.

The latest data from each of the key exporting regions paints a less positive picture than in January. This is most notable in the UK where production is expected to decline by at least 0.9% on the year.  EU milk production is set to remain in line with 2021, as are New Zealand and the US. Click here to view the latest global milk deliveries.

Already high input costs, now escalated by the current conflict in Ukraine, are offsetting strong milk prices and with no sign of relief in inflationary pressures, farmers do not feel encouraged to improve yields. The challenges of labour shortages, transport delays, increased greening requirements and unfavourable weather also need to be taken into consideration when looking at the feasability of increasing production.

With little growth in global milk supplies, prices will remain supported  and have the potential to increase further if demand rises. However, there is some uncertainty around this, as when the large price jumps eventually flow through to consumers this is likely to dampen demand. We may also see reduced purchasing as buyers use up some of the security stocks held in response to delivery delays. These factors could slow down further increases in price.

[1] From the key dairy exporting regions – US, EU-27, UK, New Zealand, Australia, and Argentina

bar chart showing changes in annual global milk production

Image of staff member Freya Shuttleworth

Freya Shuttleworth

Analyst (Dairy & Livestock)

See full bio

Sign up to our weekly newsletter.


Sign up for regular updates

You can subscribe to receive Dairy market news straight to your inbox. Simply fill in your contact details on our online form and select the information you wish to receive.

Visit the Keep in touch page

While AHDB seeks to ensure that the information contained on this webpage is accurate at the time of publication, no warranty is given in respect of the information and data provided. You are responsible for how you use the information. To the maximum extent permitted by law, AHDB accepts no liability for loss, damage or injury howsoever caused or suffered (including that caused by negligence) directly or indirectly in relation to the information or data provided in this publication.

All intellectual property rights in the information and data on this webpage belong to or are licensed by AHDB. You are authorised to use such information for your internal business purposes only and you must not provide this information to any other third parties, including further publication of the information, or for commercial gain in any way whatsoever without the prior written permission of AHDB for each third party disclosure, publication or commercial arrangement. For more information, please see our Terms of Use and Privacy Notice or contact the Director of Corporate Affairs at info@ahdb.org.uk  © Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board. All rights reserved. 

Sectors:

Tags:

×