Wednesday, 14 October 2020
By Chris Gooderham
GB milk production is provisionally estimated to have been 998m litres in September, 0.9% above last year. This is the second highest level for 25 years, just behind the 1,003m litres recorded in September 2015.
Our backdated milk production amendment will have helped lift the estimate, but the biggest part of the rise has come from an unusually strong increase through the month. The last week in September was 2.8% higher than the last week in August. Over the previous five years the rise has never been more than 1.2%, and has averaged a much more conservative 0.6%.
Volumes are currently tracking 1.9% above our recent forecast. While our forecast assumes a gradual increase over the coming few months, the current actual level of production is in line with where we thought volumes might get to by the middle of December. We will continue to track production over the next few weeks to determine whether the latest lift is sustainable over the autumn and into the winter.
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