GB milk production falls further behind last season

Monday, 13 December 2021

By Kat Jack

GB milk production provisionally totalled 977 million litres in November, 3.1% below November 2020, based on our daily deliveries data. The latest daily figures are even further behind, with GB deliveries for the week ending 4 December averaging 32.49m litres/day, 4.2% behind the same time last year.

  graph showing GB daily milk deliveries

We have certainly seen a difference in production trends between this season and last year. In 2020/21, milk production hit the trough in mid-August and immediately started rising again. This year, the trough started in late July, and production has remained comparatively flat since then. The contrast is particularly stark for November. November 2020 milk production was the highest in 25 years, while November 2021 production is the lowest of the last 5 years. Overall, the season to date (April-November) is now running 0.6% behind the same period in 2020/21.

The lower milk deliveries have supported price increases on wholesale markets as product availability has suffered. This has fed through into increases in farmgate milk prices over the next few months, although with input cost inflation eating into margins, the higher prices are not expected to incentivise increased production.

Keep an eye out for our quarterly milk production forecast update which will account for all the changes to prices and input costs in the last few months.

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Katherine Jack

Senior Analyst - Dairy

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