Friday, 11 December 2020
By Chris Gooderham
According to our survey, November deliveries are provisionally put at 1,009m litres, 2.0% above last year and the highest November volume since 1995. This is despite a revision to the weighting we use to convert survey results into an estimate for the whole country.
As a result of disruption to markets earlier this year, we have seen a number of farmers moving milk buyer recently, and this has thrown out our estimates of milk deliveries. Over the last 2 months, these movements have meant the coverage in our weekly milk production survey has increased from 76.3% to 77.6% of total production in GB. While at first glance that might not seem like a significant change, in reality it would alter the estimate for the whole of GB by some 18m litres per month. While we had factored in an increase in the weighting because of those movements, the latest data suggests we underestimated the changes that took effect from 1st October.
The latest re-weighting puts GB milk deliveries in October at 1,025m litres, 0.6% above October last year.
The solution to further improving the accuracy of our estimates is for more companies to get involved in the weekly milk deliveries survey. By doing so, our coverage will increase, limiting the risk of farmers moving from a company outside the survey to one within it, or vice-versa. If you are a milk buyer and would like to discuss how you can get involved, please get in contact.
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