GB milk deliveries: volume declines continue in February

GB milk deliveries are estimated to have totalled 973 million litres in the 29 days of February 2024 with an average of 33.6 million litres per day. Due to the leap year, February contained an extra day in 2024 compared to 2023 and so we will compare year on year volumes on an equivalent of 28 days only. This would mean a decline of 1.1% year on year.

For the season to date (Apr23 – Feb24) GB milk deliveries are estimated have totalled 11.23 billion litres, down 0.6% on the same period last season as growth reported in the first five months has been outweighed by declines in the last six months. This is the lowest milk volume recorded since the 2016/17 milk season.

The decline in volume is most likely to be driven by reduced yields as the GB dairy herd recorded only marginal change year on year in the latest BCMS data. Although farmgate milk prices have seen some improvement in the most recent months, many producers are still struggling with high input costs and interest rates eroding farm margins and working capital. This is providing little incentive to push cows.  An extremely wet start to the year will not help in allowing cows to get out on the grass either.

As we approach the spring flush there remains some uncertainty around demand, which has continued to be reported as lacklustre both on the global and domestic markets. In the 12 weeks ending 27 January, Nielsen data shows GB retail volume purchases of cows dairy were down just 0.5% year-on-year.* Demand will be a a key watch point over the next few months.

*Please note that this figure has been updated since the original publication date due to a data revision by the data provider.

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