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GB milk deliveries: production down in October as wet weather hit the UK
Tuesday, 7 November 2023
Estimated GB milk deliveries totalled 1,004 million litres in October, a drop of 29.2 million litres (2.8%) compared to the same month last year. Daily deliveries averaged 32.4million litres per day. This year’s milk season (April-Oct) production totals 7,276 million litres so far, a slight drop (0.1%) compared to the same period of 2022.
It is important to note that October 2022 had exceptional conditions for milk production, recording the highest volumes in seven years. The weather was unseasonably warm and sunny and milk prices were on the up, moving towards the December peak.
In contrast, the weather in October 2023 was poor, with farmers particularly affected by the heavy rainfall and flooding resulting from Storm Babet. Much of Scotland, northern, central, and eastern England received more than the whole-month average rainfall over the four-day period of Storm Babet (18 – 21 Oct) according to the Met Office, alongside this, some regions experienced winds of over 58mph. These conditions led to many cows being brought in to sheds earlier than expected.
The reduction in production over the winter months is in line with the expectations discussed at our Milk forecasting forum and may continue or decrease further as we move into the early part of 2024. A drop in production may support milk prices, as a reduced supply would put greater pressure on the market, which could help ease pressure on farm margins during this period of continued high inflation. We will be watching closely what happens to volumes in the coming weeks, ahead of our December forecast update.
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