GB milk deliveries: Milk volumes decline as high heat continues

Key points:

• GB daily deliveries fell an estimated 3.2% in July year-on-year
• Heat stress continues to suppress yields, with the latest week down 4.5%
• Drought has cut forage production, tightening margins further

Daily deliveries in July averaged 33.28m litres and totalled an estimated 1,032m litres, a reduction of 34m litres (-3.2%) compared to the previous year. This brings milk year to date (April–July) supplies for GB to 2% below 2025 levels.

July daily deliveries opened 1.8m litres below last year's high level and remained consistently under year-ago volumes, averaging a 1.1m litre shortfall. The most recent week of data (week ending 1 August) showed a 4.5% decline on year-ago levels, finishing just below the five-year average.

Milk contracts moved upwards for August, with more positive price announcements for September, though will remain below cost of production for many.

The Met Office recorded the driest and sunniest July on record for England and Wales, with 71% of England now in drought. This is likely a leading factor in the continued fall in milk volumes, as high heat stress suppresses yields.

The weather has also cut forage production, with grass availability in a critical position for much of GB, prompting livestock farmers to begin feeding silage earlier due to poor grazing. This compounds the input-cost pressures already facing the industry, squeezing margins further.

Bluetongue remains a key watchpoint for the domestic herd. With recent reports concentrated in Devon, escalation could add to the existing downward pressure on milk yields.

Figure 1. GB daily milk deliveries (m litres per day, seven-day rolling average)

Source: AHDB

Line graph shows GB daily milk deliveries over time that rise in the spring flush and then fall before rising through the autumn. The graph shows that in July the 2026/27 line (in light blue) continues to fall from the 2025/26 line (in navy blue) and remains similar to the five-year average (in brown).