GB milk deliveries: Milk volumes continue to tighten

Key points:

• GB milk deliveries fell an estimated 2.5% in September year-on-year
• Increased costs of production pressurise margins
• Bluetongue remains a potential threat to the sector

Daily deliveries in September averaged 33.27m litres and totalled an estimated 998m litres, a reduction of 26m litres (-2.5%) compared to the previous year. This brings the milk year to date (April – 3 October) supplies for GB to 2.3% below 2025 levels. This is a reduction in the rate of decline seen for August (which was -4.4%) as temperatures have eased and parched pastures came back to life.

September daily deliveries opened 6.6m litres below last year’s level and 0.6m litres below 5-year average. However, by the first week of the month, volumes picked up above the 5-year average. The most recent week of data (week ending 3 October) showed a decline of 2.8% year-on-year, indicating an easing of the decline.

Shifts towards Autumn calving may be modifying the decline seen in September to an extent.

Whilst milk prices have seen positive movements through early autumn, cost of producing milk is increasing with feed costs expected to rise amid dry climatic conditions in the key growing regions. Fuel, fertiliser and energy prices continue to be impacted by the war in the Middle East. Additionally, the cost and availability of forage, straw and labour are also increasing margin pressure for farmers.

Bluetongue remains a key watchpoint for the domestic herd and may have particularly affected output in the southwest although reports indicate that most farmers will have now vaccinated.

Amidst all these challenges, our latest milk production forecast points towards a 2.2% decline year-on-year in 2026/27. Read the full article here for a detailed outlook of the market.

Figure 1. GB daily milk deliveries (m litres per day, seven-day rolling average)

Source: AHDB

Line graph shows GB daily milk deliveries over time that rise in the spring flush and then fall before rising through the autumn. The graph shows that in September the 2026/27 line (in light blue) remains below the 2025/26 line (in navy blue) but is above the five-year average (in brown). 

Sign up to receive the latest information from AHDB.