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EU sheep meat production forecast to remain stable in 2020
Wednesday, 29 April 2020
By Felicity Rusk
The EU Commission has recently published the latest edition of its short-term outlook for agricultural markets. Note the outlook is now for the EU-27, so excludes the UK.
The Commission expects that EU sheep and goat meat production will remain stable in 2020, after considerable growth recorded in 2019. A contraction in flock size, a slowdown in production from Romania and improved export opportunities will also likely bring stabilities to supplies.
In some nations, surplus supplies from the foodservice sector will not be able to be re-directed into the retail sector, notably Spain and Greece. Additionally, the typical uplift in demand around Easter and Ramadan may not recorded, as such, a proportion of current production may be put into frozen stores for later in the year.
In 2019, exports recorded strong growth, supported by an uplift in shipments to the Middle East and some Asian nations. Looking ahead, it is likely these markets will continue to drive exports in 2020. Spain and Ireland are expected to benefit the most.
Exports of live animals also recorded strong growth in 2019, driven by demand from emerging destinations such as Saudi Arabia and Iran. However, live exports are expected to decline considerably in 2020, due to escalating tensions in some key destinations. Furthermore, logistical disruption due to COVID-19 may hamper transport links.
Meanwhile, EU imports fell in 2019, as shipments from New Zealand, typically the largest source nation, was re-directed towards Asia. The Commission expects EU imports to decline in 2020, by around 1%. However, this is under the expectation that the UK will export less to the EU than it did in 2019.
With sheep and goat meat not transitioning as well into the retail sector compared to some other proteins, average consumption is expected to fall away by around 0.4%.
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