Analyst insight: UK barley area to fall to 15-year low

• UK feed wheat futures rose yesterday, partly supported by a weaker sterling. The May-26 contract closed at £169.00/t, up £0.75/t from Tuesday, while the new-crop (Nov-26) contract gained £0.65/t to settle at £171.90/t.
• Sterling weakened against both the US dollar and the euro, closing at £1=$1.3375 and £1=€1.1385 respectively (LSEG). The move followed the release of latest data from the Office for National Statistics, showing a sharper-than-expected fall in Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) to 3.2% in November. This comes ahead of the Bank of England’s monetary policy decision today (18 Dec), where markets are pricing in an interest rate cut.
• In contrast, Chicago wheat and Paris milling wheat futures (May-26) both fell by 0.4% to new contract lows yesterday, pressured by ample global supply and ongoing Ukraine-Russia peace talks.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-26) closed at €461.25/t yesterday, down €1.25/t (0.3%) on the day, following declines in Chicago soyabean and Winnipeg canola futures (May-26), which fell by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively.
• The USDA reported export sales of 198 Kt of US soyabeans to China, as the market continues to track Chinese purchases ahead of the 12 Mt target for the end of February 2026.

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The final UK area forecasts for 2026 from AHDB’s Early Bird Survey (EBS) show only small changes from the provisional figures for wheat, barley, oats and oilseed rape.

The small changes mainly reflect those between provisional and final UK area figures for 2025. There are also small adjustments to allow for any weighting differences (crop mix or regions) between the survey area and the final official data, reverting back to the methodology used in 2023.

The final forecasts are shown below, with rises for wheat and oilseed rape, but falls for barley, oats and pulses. A large rise in the area of uncropped arable land is also predicted.

Barley area forecast to fall to 15-year low

The largest change in terms of the planned hectarage for harvest 2026 is for spring barley, with falls for all countries of the UK and all of the English regions. This reflects the tough market environment currently for barley, with lower prices, especially for malting barley, and sharp declines in demand from the brewing, malting and distilling sector.

In Scotland, the spring barley area is forecast to decline 10% to 227 Kha, the lowest level since 2007. Within England, the East Midlands expects the largest decline in hectare terms, followed by the East of England.

While there are variations across the UK, the total winter barley area is expected to decline slightly as well.

The forecast changes for winter and spring barley would put the total UK barley area for harvest 2026 at 972 Kha, down 10% year-on-year and the lowest level since 2011. Even if yields returned to average levels in 2016, a fall in area of this size would limit UK barley production in 2026.

EU-27 prospects may also add to a reduced global barley output picture in 2026/27. Coceral forecasts a broadly stable barley area for harvest 2026, though production could shrink if yields return to more typical levels after the good results in 2025.

However, any potential for price impacts would also depend on domestic and global demand levels, plus the quality of the 2026 crops and price changes for other crops.

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