Analyst insight: OSR area rises for harvest 2026

• The May-26 contract closed at £177.40/t, up £0.75/t (0.4%) from Tuesday’s close. Domestic wheat futures increased slightly more than other wheat futures, supported by a weaker sterling against the US dollar and the euro.
• Chicago wheat and Paris milling wheat futures (May-26) increased by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively. Global wheat futures prices rose slightly yesterday, partly due to increased activity among importers in the physical market. However, competition between the main exporters limited the scope for price increases.
• Grain consultancy SovEcon is forecasting a decrease in 2026 Russian wheat production, to 83.8 Mt, due to an anticipated reduction in the area from the latest estimate of 87.8 Mt in the current season (LSEG).
• Paris rapeseed futures (Feb-26) fell €1.00/t to €478.50/t yesterday, while futures for May-26 decreased by €1.50/t to €475.75/t. The movement likely reflected a dip in vegetable oil futures yesterday.
• Chicago soyabean futures (May-26) rose by 0.5%, reaching their highest level since June 2024. Optimism surrounding the US-China trade deal continues to drive up the price of soyabeans in Chicago. Recent news about ending the longest US government shutdown in history could lead to more information being released soon on the grain and oilseeds market.

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AHDB’s Early Bird Survey of early plantings and planting intentions shows a 30% rise in the UK oilseed rape area for harvest 2026 to 316 Kha. The crop likely benefited from a more favourable outlook compared to other crops, as well as the good yields achieved in 2025 and rotation needs.

This recovery in the oilseed rape area could help reduce our reliance on imports next season. The UK oilseed rape area has struggled from pest pressure in recent years, especially cabbage stem flea beetles, and variable margins. As production declined, our reliance on imports has increased. The UK area fell to a forty-two-year low in 2025, though good yields prevented a further decline in production.

If all crops make it to harvest, the 2026 oilseed rape area would be the largest since 2023, though it would still fall a little below that year. Early reports of crop potential are encouraging, but AHDB’s first look at winter crop conditions will be out at the end of this month.

Wheat edges up but barley and oats fall

There is a different picture for most cereal crops, as lower prices but higher costs present a challenging picture for margins and have likely impacted area plans. The poor cereal yields of the past two years, along with ongoing commitments to agri-environment schemes are also likely to be limiting 2026 cereal areas.

The wheat area is up 1% from 2025 to a provisional forecast of 1,675 Kha, though the area remains below 2023’s level. Still assuming a return to average yields, the increase in area points to higher UK wheat production in 2026.

In contrast, unless barley and oat yields are above average in 2026, production is likely to decline. The winter barley area is estimated to fall a further 2% to 356 Kha, while spring barley plantings are expected to decline 15% to 610 Kha. If confirmed, this would put the total barley area for harvest 2026 at 963 Kha, the lowest level since 2010. The area of oats is also expected to decline, down 14% to a projected 170 Kha but just above the area seen in 2023.

Next information

The Early Bird Survey results are available here. The 2026 area projections will be updated in late December to reflect the official final UK areas for 2025. Regional area projections for wheat, barley, oats and oilseed rape, plus area estimates for a wider range of crops will also be released then.

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