Lamb 2030 supply forecasts: Conclusions and implications

Farmers:

• Consider the costs and benefits of accessing new government income sources, such as the Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI) in England
• Plan for the phasing out of remaining direct payments and consider whether this means changes for the farm business to ensure viability

AHDB and the supply chain:

• Raise awareness of the new agricultural schemes and assess impact of any policy changes on business profitability

Government:

• Given forecasted changes to domestic consumption, this analysis suggests national self-sufficiency could be reduced by 2030. Consider whether new schemes and funding will strike the right balance between delivering environmental gains and supporting food production
• Assess whether new schemes are appropriate for all geographies including, for example, upland areas

AHDB and the supply chain:

• Continue work to improve access for UK product in overseas markets, focusing on priority regions to ensure there is a diverse spread of markets available for all parts of the carcase. This will help mitigate volatility across markets and maximise market returns

Government:

• Break down market access barriers for beef exports in discussions with other countries
• Preferential trade deals with key markets which have a demand for sheep meat imports (such as the Middle East), together with other growing markets in the Asia–Pacific region, could be prioritised. More detail on UK sheep meat export prospects

Farmers:

• Focus on cost of production and business efficiency. There may be learnings from our report on the characteristics of top-performing farms
• Explore how technical performance can be optimised across the business. Our “Best case +” scenario demonstrates how widespread improvements in efficiency could influence national production levels

AHDB and the supply chain:

• Continue to support improvements in on-farm efficiency and technical performance to improve business resilience and sustainability

Farmers:

• Develop risk management plans for these areas and consider whether changes to the farming system may add resilience

AHDB and the supply chain:

• Consider how to support farmers with these external pressures. For example, the AHDB Roots to Resilience programme has supported farmers to make business changes

Government:

• Severe shocks, such as extreme weather events and disease outbreaks, have adversely impacted production. Government could consider what support it may provide in these areas
• Ensure sufficient funding is available to support infrastructure, systems and protocols to manage and eradicate longer-term disease pressure

Farmers:

• Understand the demands and requirements of end markets

AHDB and the supply chain:

• Provide clear market signals to farmers to ensure production responds to market requirements
• There is a symbiotic relationship between farmers and processors. A decline in production would have implications for processing capacity and utilisation. Equally, a loss of local and regional abattoirs would impact producers in the local area
• There is a need to recognise the importance of a robust network of abattoirs, including small and medium sites able to support producers with private kills and value-add options

Government:

• Support the development of a greater market transparency, which will provide clear market signals throughout the supply chain and give farmers confidence to invest for the future. For example, the introduction of mandatory sheep price reporting and carcase classification.

Farmers:

• Take steps to improve in line with the best-performing farmers when it comes to management and leadership. For instance, develop succession plans for the farm business, engage with education and training providers to improve recruitment and development of staff. AHDB’s AgriLeader programme may provide opportunities to learn from other businesses

AHDB and the supply chain:

• Support and facilitate ongoing efforts to attract new entrants who are essential to maintain labour supply at farm and processing level

Government:

Work with industry and continue to support education and training initiatives for the current and future workforce. Consider sector workforce requirements when making decisions around current and future policies, for example relating to migrant workers

Farmers:

• Engage with research and development activities to ensure this is has practical application on farm
• Maximise use of on-farm data to aid understanding of current performance and identifying where gains can be made

AHDB and the supply chain:

• Continued investment in research and data systems to support the industry
• Work towards solutions around effective data collection and management, for example environmental data

Government:

• Ensure investment is focused on meeting industry needs. This is a focus for bodies like agri-tech centres that receive government funding