Lamb 2030 supply forecasts: How sheep meat production in Great Britain may change by 2030

Read our analysis of future trends in domestic sheep supply to inform your strategic planning.

Using four scenarios, we have modelled future supply of prime and cull sheep, as well as lamb production levels in Great Britain. Projections and assumptions are made for several variables, including the breeding ewe flock size, average productivity levels and carcase weights.

We hope this will inform a basis for exploring the future of sheep supply and sheep meat production.

In Conclusions and implications, we suggest what the industry and the Government might do to ensure a strong and resilient sheep sector, one that is able to capitalise on future opportunity.

The Results and Methodology show the assumptions we have made and the limitations of the forecasts.

Key points

• The forecast scenarios assume a range of outcomes for sheep slaughter and sheep meat production in Great Britain by 2030. The scenarios assume a continuation of historical trends, including the size of the national breeding ewe flock
• Our baseline forecast for clean sheep slaughter is a 1.8% reduction by 2030 (compared with actual 2023 figures), assuming current trends in the national breeding flock will continue
• Given long-term forecast for relatively stable domestic consumption, national self-sufficiency of sheep meat could reduce by 2030 in certain scenarios
• There is potential for the sector to think and act differently to mitigate a reduction in supplies. This would require actions by farmers, the wider supply chain and the Government in areas such as agricultural policy, business efficiency and supply chain resilience
• Production declines could be mitigated by improvements in lambing efficiency. Improved producer confidence and market conditions would facilitate expansion in production levels during the forecast period