Winter wheat set to increase across all regions of the UK: Grain Market Daily

Market commentary

• UK wheat futures (Nov-21) closed yesterday at £159.15/t, down £0.25/t on Monday’s close. While old crop futures (May-21) closed at £199.00/t, up £0.50/t on Monday’s close.
• Brazilian grain growers association Aprosoja has revised down Brazilian 2020/21 soyabean crop forecast by 2Mt, to now stand at 127Mt. As dryness in key producing states is expected to hinder yields.
• The market may have factored in much of this dryness as Chicago soyabean futures (May-21) have risen by 19.6% since the start of November, closing yesterday at $459.11/t. Paris rapeseed futures (Feb-21) have also benefitted from this gaining 7.45% in the same period, closing yesterday at €414.75/t.

Winter wheat set to increase across all regions of the UK

DEFRA released their final estimates for the 2020 UK crops yesterday and Alex gave an insight and overview into this data.

We can now use this data against our Early Bird Survey to see the intended regional changes for harvest 2021.

The Early Bird Survey points to a resurgence in winter cropping, as the area for both winter wheat and barley is set to increase year-on year.

This is a sizeable increase, although it comes as little surprise after last year’s difficult drilling campaign which resulted in many growers switching to spring cropping.

Oilseed rape (OSR) area is set to decrease by 18% to 312Kha. There has been an increase in alternative cropping such as oats and pulses.

Wheat

The total wheat area is estimated to increase by 28% year-on-year to 1,776Kha.

Across all regions of the UK there is an estimated increase in wheat areas. The most notable areas that have encapsulated this are two regions that saw a significant decrease last year, the East and East Midlands.

With the area up in the East and East Midlands by 19% and 55%, respectively, growers in these two regions combined are expected to increase their wheat area by 198Kha.

Furthermore, another region that could largely dictate how far delivered premiums for 2021/22 stretch is Yorkshire & The Humber. Their area is expected to increase by 31% with the area for wheat estimated at 226Kha.

Additional Key information & conclusions

• Spring barley area is expected to decrease by 30% to 756Kha. Despite the significant reduction in spring barley, growers are still collectively going to sow over 1,100Kha of barley again.
• Spring barley area in the East (-57Kha), East Midlands (-87Kha) and Yorkshire & The Humber (-49Kha) have significantly reduced.
• The total oats area is forecast to increase by 2.1% year-on-year to 214Kha. Way above the 5-year-average of 173Kha. If spring planting intentions go as planned, we could be looking at our third successive 1Mt oat crop.
• The total OSR area is estimated to decrease by 18% year-on-year to 312Kha. The largest decrease in areas have been from the East (-19Kha) and East Midlands (-33Kha), this isn’t too much of a surprise as these two areas are where the Cabbage Stem Flea Beetle can cause significant damage.

For in depth regional information and analysis check out the Early Bird Survey page on our website, where there is a regional break down for wheat, winter & spring barley, oats and oilseed rape.

This is the first insight into regional cropping for harvest 21 and could have an impact on regional pricing throughout the 2021/22 marketing year.

It’s paramount to stay ahead and use this information to plan strategies to market your commodity.

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