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What might the 2022 flush look like?
Thursday, 10 February 2022
As hints of spring start to appear on the horizon, thoughts will be turning to the upcoming flush. The strong influence of the weather can make it hard to predict how milk production will develop, but we can take a look at historical trends to get the range of likely outcomes in 2022.
If we look at data from the last seven years[1], daily milk deliveries in GB have peaked at between 36.38 and 37.80 million litres (7-day rolling average). However, most years also started the year stronger, making a higher peak more easily attainable. 2022 is currently running on the low side, with January production closer to that seen in 2015 and 2016 than in subsequent years. So, if we apply the highest and lowest possible trend lines[2] to our latest daily figures (week ending 29 Jan), we can project a likely range of outcomes.
If spring production followed the worst trend throughout the period, the peak would be only 35.76m litres per day. If it follows the strongest trend, it could go up to 37.68m litres per day.
At the moment, our December milk production forecast is on the optimistic side of this range, running closely to the maximum trend line. Daily deliveries as of 29 Jan were running 0.38m litres behind the forecast, suggesting a slightly lower peak than predicted – but still on the upper end of this range. However, the weather this spring, and the delicate balance between milk prices and input costs, both have the potential to shift the trend.
[1] Analysis has been done from 2014 onwards when quota was lifted, or in the case of 2014 elevated. Prior to this, volumes were lower and less comparable due to the cap of quotas.
[2] Note that the brief impact of the 2018 ‘Best from the East’ on deliveries has been discounted, as that affected collections but not actual milk production.
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