What can we expect from harvest 22? Grain market daily

• Global wheat markets were up yesterday as recession fears eased. Today markets continue to see some support from concerns to the Argentinian wheat crop, considering unfavourable conditions look to reduce plantings according to Buenos Aires Grain Exchange yesterday.
• Paris milling wheat futures (Dec-22) closed yesterday at €328.75/t, up €12.25/t from the previous Wednesday’s close.
• UK feed wheat futures (Nov-22) followed suit, closing at £267.75/t, up £7.75/t over the same period. New crop futures (Nov-23) closed at £236.50/t, gaining £8.10/t over yesterday’s session.
• Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) closed yesterday at €692.00/t, up €9.00/t on Wednesday’s close.

Yesterday, the AHDB released the latest Planting and Variety Survey figures for the UK. What can we expect from the harvest 22 crop?

Well, headline figures show that the forecasted UK wheat area is up by 1%, winter barley area up 10% and oilseed rape area up by 9% from 2021 Defra area data. Whereas small falls are forecasted for the area of spring barley area (down 12%) and oat area (down 9%).

There were some expectations that a large increase in wheat price at the end of February, due to the Ukraine Russian war outbreak, may result in a change to planting intentions. We have seen some small changes from the Early Bird Planting Intentions produced in December 2021, but no large jumps.

Using the survey area figures, we can apply a 5-year average yield from Defra data (2017 – 2021) to forecast production for harvest 22.

Using a UK average for 4 key crops, we can see that a production forecast for total wheat is 14,364Kt (14.4Mt) for harvest 22. This would be up 3% from the 2021 production if realised.

Total barley production is forecasted down 2% from 2021, to 6,830Kt. Oat production is forecasted down 13% to 983Kt. This oat production forecast is down from a record high crop in 2021, at 1,123Kt. Oilseed rape production is forecasted at 1,111Kt, up 13% from 2021.

Going forward, UK yields and crop quality will be key to follow closely as harvest progresses to assess the size of the harvest 22 crop.

We are seeing combines rolling across the Northern Hemisphere. French soft wheat is reportedly 14% harvested as at 4 July according to FranceAgrimer. This is ahead of 1% progress this time last year, due to recent dry weather. Though yields are expected to be variable, with the south not benefitting from rains seen in the north. Variability continues across the EU, with Spain and Italy suffering severe drought. Beneficial rain has arrived in Germany and Poland. Whereas Romania and Bulgaria are expected large crops. Weather remains something to watch.

You can subscribe to receive Grain Market Daily straight to your inbox. Simply fill in your contact details on our online form and select the information you wish to receive.

While AHDB seeks to ensure that the information contained on this webpage is accurate at the time of publication, no warranty is given in respect of the information and data provided. You are responsible for how you use the information. To the maximum extent permitted by law, AHDB accepts no liability for loss, damage or injury howsoever caused or suffered (including that caused by negligence) directly or indirectly in relation to the information or data provided in this publication.

All intellectual property rights in the information and data on this webpage belong to or are licensed by AHDB. You are authorised to use such information for your internal business purposes only and you must not provide this information to any other third parties, including further publication of the information, or for commercial gain in any way whatsoever without the prior written permission of AHDB for each third party disclosure, publication or commercial arrangement. For more information, please see our Terms of Use and Privacy Notice or contact the Director of Corporate Affairs at info@ahdb.org.uk  © Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board. All rights reserved.