Uncertainty in EU pig market as key German plant closes

Tuesday, 23 June 2020

By Bethan Wilkins

In the past few weeks, the pig market in Europe has stabilised, with reports of improving meat sales and tightening live pig supplies. The EU average pig reference price has hovered around €163/100kg since the end of May.

While the outlook had looked to be improving, there is now uncertainty around this. The closure of the large German processing plant in Rheda-Wiedenbruck, which has also suspended its exports to China, is a concern. The plant reportedly processes in excess of 100,000 pigs a week and it seems it will be closed for a few weeks, although this is unclear. Tonnies, who owns the plant, is apparently confident the pigs can be diverted elsewhere. However, it seems likely increased tightness in slaughter capacity will put downward pressure on prices in the coming week at least.

Germany is central to the European pork market and any price pressure is likely to have repercussions in other member states. Countries that export live pigs to Germany for slaughter may well face some difficulties, if these supplies prove difficult to divert. For the UK, the sow market may face pressure, with most of these carcases exported to Germany.

It is not currently clear how long trade with China will be interrupted, even when the plant does reopen. Access to China is important as it maximises carcase values, particularly at a time where EU demand is challenged by limitations on the foodservice industry. Other plants may need to increase their exports in order to maintain volumes overall.

Reports indicate China has already increased inspections of imported meat, following the cluster of coronavirus infections linked to a wholesale market in Beijing. Plants in the US and Brazil may be particularly vulnerable, with many plants in these regions suffering serious outbreaks. Clearly though, the EU is also not immune to these difficulties.

Ultimately, China is still acutely short of pork. So far this year, large imports and releases from state reserves have been used in an attempt to reduce the high domestic pork prices, with some success. Any action that limits the import supply ultimately risks pushing pork prices up again. However, at the moment, preventing recurrence of COVID-19 is also a priority. Although it is highly unlikely that people can contract COVID-19 from food or food packaging, according to the World Health Organisation, caution over imported meat may well be another challenge facing suppliers to the Chinese market this year.

Bethan Wilkins

Senior Analyst - Red Meat

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