UK feed wheat prices take a breath: Grain market daily

• May 22 UK feed wheat futures returned to week earlier levels yesterday, to £295.00/t, losing £8.00/t from Monday. New crop wheat futures also fell £5.50/t, settling at £243.50/t.
• Global wheat markets also lost ground yesterday, with Chicago wheat futures (May 22) closing at $472.66/t, down $2.76/t on the day. However, May 22 Chicago maize futures gained $0.89/t to close at $296.46/t. Likewise, Chicago soyabeans (May 22) gained $11.11/t on Monday and closed at $620.81/t.
• The easing in wheat prices can be partly attributed to a rise in Brazilian exports. On the back of situation in Ukraine, it has been reported that Brazil is to export more wheat and maize than usual for this point in the season. A deal to export 100Kt of wheat from Brazil was made last week, with wheat from Brazil looking quite competitive due to the high dollar and weaker domestic demand, according to a Refinitiv source.
• The latest USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) is due to be published later today, which will include its updated projections for global production and trade.

Despite UK feed wheat futures closing down yesterday, prices remain at very high levels. February marked the 22^nd consecutive month that UK nearby feed wheat futures gained on the year. The monthly average nearby UK feed wheat price for February was £222.12/t, 9% up on year earlier levels. While we are only a week in to March, as it stands, the current monthly average is 39% up on March 2021 at £279.40/t.

While the current turmoil in the Black Sea has been driving the UK market over the past couple of weeks, the tighter supply and demand situation domestically has played its part in elevating UK prices over the past few months.

In the January UK supply and demand estimates, the balance of wheat for 2021/22 is forecast at 1.986Mt, the lowest since 2015/16. The tight balance is due to strong domestic demand, on the back of an increase in bioethanol and animal feed usage. Full season wheat imports are currently pegged at 1.45Mt for 2021/22. However, with the current situation globally, will this volume be realised? We have already seen the spread between feed wheat and feed barley widen over the past couple of weeks, which in theory would make barley more attractive for some rations. This could take some demand away from imported wheat.

The next UK supply and demand update is due to be published on 24 March, providing an update on the domestic situation. 

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