Swift start to GB harvest: Grain market daily

• UK feed wheat futures (Nov-22) gained £4.00/t yesterday, to close at £272.00/t. The Nov-23 contract closed at £242.65/t yesterday, up £2.65/t.
• These gains followed the Paris contract, as hot weather increases concerns over the quality and quantity of grain crops in the EU, and export demand remains strong. Egypt’s state grain buyer purchased 120Kt of French and Russian wheat yesterday. This follows a previous purchase of 640Kt on Wednesday of mostly French and Russian wheat, as well as some German and Lithuanian origin.
• Though today, wheat markets drop lower on expectations of higher Black Sea supplies being available as a deal looks to be signed to open ports to grain shipments. More on this below.
• Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) closed at €630.00/t yesterday, down a further €17.25/t.

A deal is anticipated to be signed this afternoon between Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, and the United Nations that could see grain exports resumed from port. Though the details of the full deal are not yet known, it is expected Black Sea grain exports would resume along with Russian fertiliser and grain shipments. At Odesa, 20Mt of grain is expected to be held.

Though questions will remain around the functioning of facilities at ports considering the conflict and bombing, and the quality of grain held at port.

Should this deal be signed, this will likely take some support from grain and oilseed markets across the board as the available supply picture changes. Something to watch this afternoon as to whether a deal is met.

This is the first harvest report of the 2022/23 season and covers the beginning of harvest up to 19 July 2022. This early report is based solely on data from the South East, South West, Eastern and East Midlands regions, with an indication of harvest progress elsewhere in the country.

The hot and dry weather has continued across the UK throughout July, with an average UK air temperature of 18.7°C recorded during the week ending 12 July. This is 2.6°C above the long-term average. The week ending 19 July saw continued high temperatures in excess of 30°C. Across the UK, the average rainfall for the week ending 12 July was only 0.1 mm.

The dry weather has enabled farmers to make a good start to the winter barley and winter oilseed rape harvest in Southern and Eastern regions of England. Winter barley harvest progress has been exceptionally rapid with 69% of the English, Welsh and Scottish harvest already complete. The next earliest harvest was 2006, where 45% was complete by week 2.

Overall, 28% of the GB winter oilseed rape area (WOSR) has been harvested up to 19 July. This is based on data mainly from the South and Eastern regions.

WOSR harvest in the South and East is well progressed ranging from 50 - 75% complete. However, in the West Midlands and further north harvest was only just starting or not yet underway. Overall, harvest progress is slightly ahead of recent years, where typically 4 - 15% is complete by the end of week 2.

Where farmers have completed the winter barley and winter oilseed rape (WOSR) harvest in Eastern and Southern regions, a start has been made on winter wheat harvest.

Concerns over combine fires and hot grain have been at the forefront of farmers’ minds. As a result, combines have been rolling late at night and early in the morning to combat the high temperatures. However, high overnight temperatures are hampering attempts to cool hot grain before entering the grain store.

For the full GB harvest update, find the full report here.

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