Smaller herd reduces spring production expectations

Friday, 13 December 2019

By Kat Jack

The latest update to the AHDB forecast sets expected GB milk production for 2019/20 at 12.58bn litres. This is 0.6% above 2018/19 and remains a 29-year high. Expectations for December-March production are unchanged from the September update. However, provisional figures for October and November are slightly above expectations, raising the total by 4m litres.

graph of the december 2019 GB milk production forecast

Looking ahead to next season, there has been a small reduction to forecasted production in April-June. This is due to a reduction in the dairy herd in October, with the herd size lower than previously projected. This has had a knock-on effect on the projected herd size next spring. The impact is small, taking around 2m litres off each month for April-June. However, given the level of uncertainty in forecasting production we round to the nearest 5m litres, and the small uplift is enough to push those forecasts up by 5m litres per month once rounded.

graph showing the December 2019 GB milk production forecast

Katherine Jack

Analyst - Dairy

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