Mid-week market update: Grain market daily

• UK feed wheat futures (May-25) closed at a new contract low of £169.00/t yesterday, down £1.85/t from Monday’s close. The Nov-25 contract fell £3.00/t over the same period, ending the session at £187.25/t.
• Domestic wheat prices tracked global wheat markets lower. Chicago wheat and Paris milling wheat futures (May-25) were both down 0.9% at yesterday’s close. Global wheat futures fell on Tuesday as the US announced it had reached agreements with Russia and Ukraine to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-25) closed up for the sixth consecutive day yesterday, gaining €6.50/t, to close at €506.00/t. New crop futures (Nov-25) ended the session at €480.00/t, up €3.25/t over the same period. Limited rapeseed supplies in the EU continue to support old crop, while new crop is under pressure from favourable weather for the 2025 crop.

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In this mid-week market update, we explore two key factors driving global grain and oilseed markets and their effects on the domestic market.

Grains

Lowering weather risks for Northern Hemisphere winter wheat crops and an easing of the situation in the Black Sea region, due to some possible ceasefire agreements, have put pressure on the market since the beginning of this week.

The latest EU MARS report shows that winter crops are in good condition in most of the EU and neighbouring countries, with mostly favourable conditions for sowing spring cereals.

A stronger dollar has also put pressure on wheat prices, making US exports less competitive. Indeed, after falling to low levels in the first half of March the US dollar index attempted to build an upward trend.

EU soft wheat exports since the start of the 2024/25 season in July had reached 15.46 Mt by 23 March, down 35% from the same date last year, European Commission data showed on Tuesday.

Grain consultancy Sovecon on Tuesday cut its own Russian wheat export forecast for the 2024/2025 season to 40.7 Mt from 42.2 Mt. Sovecon also updated its March wheat export estimate to 1.6 Mt, well below the 4.8 million tonnes exported in March last year.

Oilseeds

Brent crude oil futures (May-25) have risen for the last five days in a row, supported by the potential eased tone around US tariffs. On the other hand, a possibility of more crude oil supply from Russia, after an agreed partial ceasefire, could put pressure on prices in the near term.

AgRural updated its forecast for Brazilian soyabean production in the 2024/25 season to 165.9 Mt, down 2.3 Mt than previously forecast. It's a supportive factor for soybean prices. However, the active Brazilian harvest campaign limits any upside potential.

EU rapeseed imports in the current season totalled 4.84 Mt, up from 4.27 Mt a year earlier (up to 23 March). Australia and Canada continue to increase their share of EU rapeseed imports compared to last year.

Where next?

With the domestic feed wheat market being influenced by global price movements, here is a look at what could influence markets and price movements in the coming week.

At the end of this week, grains and oilseeds prices could come under additional pressure from the US tariff implementation data in early April. 

Mostly favourable weather in the Northern Hemisphere could ease grains and oilseeds prices for the 2025 crop. However, weather and the impacts of poor conditions on crops in the Northern Hemisphere remain a watch point.

This week, the EIA weekly ethanol plant production report in the US (26 March) and the USDA weekly export sales report (27 March) could influence prices. The beginning of next week will be mainly driven by the results of the USDA quarterly grain stocks report and the annual prospective plantings report. The first USDA crop progress report will also be released on 7 April, where we will see how the US crop is faring following some challenging conditions.

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