Market trends shift cow slaughter patterns: Beef market update

Key points

• Recent market conditions have affected the typical makeup of cow kill, as diverging prices in the dairy and beef sectors mean levels of cow culling have been adjusted.
• In the latest six-month period, the proportion of dairy cows making up over-thirty-month female kill grew, while suckler cow kill reduced, compared to the same period a year ago.
• Tightness in supply has supported cow prices in recent months, however any changes to culling rates in the dairy or suckler herd will be important market influences.

Seasonality of cow slaughter

Cow slaughter in GB experiences clear seasonal variation. Numbers gradually build through the summer to peak in October, before falling back again into spring. There are few key drivers of this pattern.

As producers prepare to bring cattle indoors, many look to improve efficiencies by culling weaker performers. Furthermore, demand for cattle typically strengthens in the run up to the main consumer beef demand period of Christmas.

The structural balance

Data from the British Cattle Movement Service (BCMS) shows that dairy cows consistently make up the majority of national cow kill, accounting for 56% of annual slaughter across the five-year average (2021-2025). These proportions do fluctuate slightly depending on time of year but remain broadly consistent – until we examine trends over the past year.

Figure 1. Monthly slaughter of over-thirty-month (OTM) female cattle in GB, by type

Source: BCMS, AHDB calculations

Figure one is a combined chart with bars showing cow kill split by type, dairy and beef, relating to the left-hand axis. The right-hand axis corresponds to the total cow kill, shown by the line.

How are current market factors influencing cow slaughter?

Both the beef and dairy sectors have experienced notable changes in market conditions over the past year.

On the beef side, prices grew significantly at the beginning of 2025 and cull cow prices have remained at historically high levels.

Dairy markets meanwhile have been under considerable pressure, since the autumn of 2025, with domestic and global oversupply weighing on milk and commodity prices.

In both cases, one lever that producers can pull to improve returns and manage cashflow is to adjust cow culling rates.

If we look at kill levels over the last six months, from September 2025 to February 2026, we can see the influence of the market factors in the data.

On a total level, GB cow kill has eased slightly over the last 6 months (Sep25 - Feb26), versus the same period of last year, down only 2%. However, splitting this kill by cow type reveals a divergence.

Dairy cow kill is up by 4% when comparing the latest 6-month period (Sep-Feb) to the same period of the year prior. This equates to a further 8,000 head of dairy cattle culled. This increased kill supports the notion that falls in milk prices have led to stronger culling rates, as dairy farmers look to improve efficiencies and limit costs.

In contrast, suckler cow slaughter has reduced. In the six months to February 2026, suckler cow kill in GB was 14,000 head lower year-on-year, a 9% fall. Whilst a contracting suckler cow herd will account for some of this decline in cattle killed, the slowing of the slaughter rate could be an early indicator of some level of retention within the suckler herd.

What does this mean for beef supplies?

Overall, cattle supplies remain tight, which is continuing to support prices at elevated levels, despite lower volume demand as consumers react to price increases at the shelf edge.

Whilst dairy cull cow numbers have grown in recent months, we have seen the market absorb this supply without weighing on overall cow prices, in part due to reduced numbers from the suckler herd holding total supply below year-ago levels.

Looking forward, culling rates and their impact on both cow prices and future supplies will be vital watchpoints for the market.

In the dairy herd, increased culling rates have not yet been sufficient to bring down milk supplies, with volumes currently running 3.7% higher than year-ago levels. Cows being culled are likely weaker producers or barren. Dairy farmers should consider heifer replacement costs and availability when making culling decisions for the year ahead.

Stronger culling may lead to further contractions in the dairy cow herd, with the latest AHDB forecast expecting a continued steady decline in dairy cow numbers. This would limit calf numbers; although we may see this partly counteracted by changing breeding decisions if more dairy cows are breed to beef.

Turning to the suckler herd, recent data would point to some slowing of contraction. We have seen a lower culling rates of cows and a slowing of the decline in suckler-born registrations. This begs the question, are we beginning to see a stabilisation of the suckler breeding herd?

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