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Little growth in UK dairy product availability in 2022
Thursday, 16 March 2023
Overall, the availability of manufactured dairy products has seen relatively little change through 2022. With weaker demand, the lack of any significant build-up in product availability should help stabilise product prices, at least in the short-term.
Despite cheese exports seeing an increase of 22,400 tonne (14.6%) on the year, this was outweighed by higher production and import volumes. As a result there was a marginal 0.4% increase in available cheese supplies.
Available supplies of butter dropped in 2022, down by 2,700 tonnes (-1.3%) compared to 2021. Lower production (-4,700 tonnes) and reduced imports (-1,700 tonnes) were the main causes for this. We also saw a drop in exports (-3,800 tonnes), which helped offset declining supplies. The limited availability of milk and cheese stocks, along with lower demand on the back of inflationary pressures, may have contributed to the year on year drop in exports.
Milk powder exports continued the decline seen since 2019, down 8,100 tonnes (-10.2%) in 2022 compared to the year before. Despite this, milk powder availability fell 6% (-2,500 tonnes) on the year, due to greater year-on-year losses in production and import volumes (6,800 tonnes and 3,800 tonnes respectively). This lower production may have resulted from higher energy costs.
The current high milk delivery levels suggest we could see increased production in the first half of 2023. However, whether this additional stock will create pressure on markets through the rest of 2023 will depend on the magnitude of the spring flush relative to demand levels as consumers deal with the higher cost of living.
For a look ahead to what this season could hold, take a look at AHDB’s 2023 dairy market outlook.
1Available supplies are estimated based on production + imports - exports
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