Tuesday, 24 May 2022
There was a downturn in GB daily milk deliveries in the week ending 14 May, suggesting we have passed the peak. According to the latest data, the highest daily figure was 37.00m litres on 6 May, while the 7-day rolling average peaked on 8 May at 36.81m litres.
The spring flush has so far run behind last season, following the trend seen since the latter half of 2021. This year’s peak is 2.5% lower than the highest individual day in 2021, and the lowest ‘peak day’ since 2016. The peak is also 0.4% lower than our March forecast.
While the height of the peak is one factor, how sustained it is also affects availability of milk. In 2021 we saw a rapid fall from the peak which reduced summer volumes. Meanwhile in 2020 we had a lower but more drawn out peak influenced by the reaction to coronavirus lockdowns. With low milk production a particular concern this season, this will be an area to watch over the coming months.
Senior Analyst - Dairy
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