GB milk deliveries: Milk deliveries in October drop 4% year-on-year as producer margins are eroded

Key points:

• Daily milk deliveries in October averaged 33.97 million litres/day.
• Pressure from a falling milk price and increasing input costs continue to squeeze producer margins.
• A dry autumn has allowed some late forage production, although quality is likely to be down on these later cuts.

Daily Deliveries

Daily deliveries in October averaged 33.97 million (m) litres/day, with a maximum of 34.42 m litres and a minimum of 33.21 m litres. Total milk deliveries for October reached 1,053.24 m litres, a 4% reduction on 2025 deliveries but still 1% ahead of the 5-year average.

Figure 1: GB daily milk deliveries (m litres/day, 7 days rolling average)

Source: AHDB

Figure 1 shows the 7 day rolling milk deliveries for GB, for the milk years of 2025/26, and 2026/27 with a 5-year average. The chart visualises the seasonal spring and autumnal flushes. It also shows milk deliveries trending between 2025/26 levels and the 5-year average.

This brings year to date (1 April - 31 October) deliveries to 7,450.18 m litres. This volume stands 3.X% lower than the volumes delivered year-on-year. AHDB’s forecast for the 2026/27 milk year is for supplies to reach 12.74m litres, a drop of 284m litres compared to the previous year or 2.2%.

Contributing factors

Several factors are contributing to the anticipated decline in milk production, as outlined in more detail in the October forecast update. Falling milk prices, combined with rising input costs, have continued to squeeze producer margins. Ongoing disruption to global feed supply chains as a result of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, alongside continued instability in the Middle East, has added further pressure through higher energy, fuel and fertiliser costs. Domestically, a challenging summer characterised by prolonged dry conditions has reduced forage availability and driven up both straw and forage prices across many regions. Bluetongue also continues to impact production, although anecdotal evidence suggests vaccine uptake among dairy producers has been strong.

Favourable growing conditions in the spring supported strong grass growth and generally good yields and quality from first-cut silage. However, the hot, dry summer placed pressure on forage supplies, raising concerns over winter feed availability. More recently, the mild and relatively dry autumn has allowed silage making to continue into October and November. While this may help replenish forage stocks, the nutritional quality of these later cuts is likely to be more variable than those harvested earlier in the season. The ‘super El Nino’ may add additional pressure to feed prices, as well as potentially affecting global milk supply with changing weather patterns.

Cow numbers continue to decline in numbers, with lower levels of youngstock coming through, which remains a watch point. Despite strong cow prices, cumulative year-to-date (January to October) cow throughput remains 2.8% below the same period last year, noting this includes both dairy and beef cull cows. However, numbers coming forward for slaughter have increased in recent weeks.

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