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GB arable crop report - limited winter planting and poor OSR conditions: Grain Market Daily

Tuesday, 10 December 2019

Market Commentary

  • A slowdown in US wheat export pace and above average temperatures in the main winter wheat planting states has pressured US Chicago futures over the last week.
  • A further strengthening in the value of the pound, and the down turn in Chicago wheat futures has pressured both old crop May-20 and new crop Nov-20 UK feed wheat futures. May-20 lost a further £1.00/t yesterday to close at the lowest price since 4 November. The new crop Nov-20 futures contract also closed lower, down £0.50/t at £154.50/t.

Peter Collier

Arable Analyst

GB arable crop report - limited winter planting and poor OSR conditions

The first of the AHDB Arable Crop Reports has highlighted the impact of the wet autumn and disrupted winter planting with delayed emergence and poor development.

Winter Wheat

Drilling of winter wheat was estimated to be 60% complete by the end of November, with 40% of the intended area remaining to be planted during December, January and potentially into February.

Of the crop which has been sown and emerged, the majority is in fair to good conditions. However, 15% of the emerged crop is reported to be in poor or very poor condition. By the end of November just 51% of the intended area had emerged so the weather over the next two months will be of greater significance to yield and production outlooks. However with a falling global market, the impact on domestic prices may be muted (read more here).

Oilseed rape

At 98% of the intended oilseed rape area in the ground, early sown crops toward the beginning of August are reported to have established well. However, crops sown in early September were into drier soils; this was then followed by cold and wet conditions which have led to worse establishment.

The poor establishment of later sown crops has resulted in a wide range of crop conditions. A quarter of the oilseed rape area by the end of November in very poor and poor conditions while 30% of the oilseed rape area in good and excellent condition.

The later sown, less well established crops have been at greater risk of pest attack. As such 8% of the emerged crop is in very poor condition, so further area losses may be recorded. The AHDB Early Bird survey finding of a 23% year on year reduction in area could well be revised down in the spring when we re-run the survey due to the uncertainty over winter planting and crop conditions.

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