Analyst insight: First look at 2025/26 UK supply and demand

• UK feed wheat futures showed mixed movements on Wednesday. The Nov-25 contract settled at a new contract low of £162.55/t, down £0.45/t (0.3%) on the day. In contrast, the May-26 contract edged up £0.15/t (0.1%) to close at £173.50/t
• Global wheat futures firmed slightly. Chicago wheat futures (Dec-25) gained 0.7%, while Paris milling wheat futures (Dec-25) rose 0.8%. Support came from signs of renewed export interest, though gains remain capped by ample global supply
• Algeria’s state grain agency, OAIC, is reported to have purchased between 500 Kt and 600 Kt of milling wheat via an international tender. While the origin is optional, market participants expect supplies to be sourced from the Black Sea region or Argentina (LSEG)
• Oilseed markets were mixed. Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-25) rose by €7.25/t to €472.00/t. There were also gains in Chicago soya bean futures (Nov-25), which increased by 0.4% amid optimism over trade talks with China and firmer crude oil values. Nearby Brent crude oil futures were up 2.1% on the day
• Meanwhile, Nov-25 Winnipeg canola and Dec-25 Chicago soya bean oil futures eased by 0.4% and 1.1% respectively. Markets remain sensitive to sunflower seed harvests in Ukraine with concerns over yields reported
• In Brazil, oilseed association Abiove has forecast the 2025/26 soya bean crop at a record 178.5 Mt, up from 171.8 Mt last season. Export volumes are projected at 111.0 Mt in 2026, compared with expected 109.5 Mt in 2025

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This morning AHDB released the Early Balance Sheets for wheat and barley for 2025/26 – the first look at supply and demand for the season.

Notably, with reduced availability of both wheat and barley, outweighing drops in domestic consumption, both balance sheets are looking tighter for the 2025/26 season.

A drop in wheat imports and opening stocks outweighs a rise in production

UK wheat production is provisionally estimated by AHDB at 11.836 Mt, with a larger planted area outweighing the very mixed yields we have seen this year. While production is currently projected to be 691 Kt higher on the year, at 16.017 Mt, total availability of wheat in 2025/26 is expected to fall 957 Kt on the year. A cut in imports of 868 Kt for the season, along with a 780 Kt decline in opening stocks has led to total availability for the season to decline.

Looking at domestic consumption for the season, a projected rise in animal feed usage is to be outweighed by a drop in human and industrial (H&I) usage. Domestic consumption is projected to fall 340 Kt on the year to 13.939 Mt. The main driver behind the decline in H&I usage is a drop in bioethanol demand. With the UK bioethanol sector facing extremely difficult operating conditions, Vivergo shut down operations in August 2025 and Ensus are yet to get back up and running following their usual maintenance break in September. It is assumed that Ensus too will remain offline for the remainder of the season with demand monitored closely, whilst ongoing discussions between the industry and government are taking place.

For animal feed, compound feed production is expected to remain relatively buoyant this season. Despite the recent falls in milk prices and beef prices, cattle feed is expected to remain relatively strong for at least the first half of the season. It is expected that demand may drop slightly as we enter the spring, but at this point, it is not expected to fall back significantly. With improving prospects for the poultry sector, integrated poultry unit (IPU) feed demand is expected to grow this season, adding support to cereal usage.

Wheat usage in animal feed is expected to grow by 133 Kt, to 6.969 Kt, on the back of strong compound and IPU usage. Also, the cereal inclusion rate is expected to recover this season, with wheat also snatching some demand away from maize due to relative pricing. 

With the fall in availability, outweighing the drop in usage of wheat, the balance of wheat supply and demand is projected at 2.078 Mt, down 617 Kt on the year. This is projected to be the tightest wheat balance since 2020/21.

A drop in barley production counteracts the increase in opening stocks

Again, barley yields for harvest 2025 were extremely mixed and with a drop in planted area, UK barley output for 2025/26 is provisionally estimated at 6.439 Mt, down 652 Kt on the year. Despite the increase in opening stocks of 116 Kt, the drop in production means total availability is set to fall 559 Kt on the year to 7.928 Mt.

Total domestic consumption is also expected to decline this year by 275 Kt to 6.227 Mt, with less expected to be fed on farm along with dwindling H&I demand.

Barley H&I demand is set to fall once more to 1.721 Mt (down 77 Kt year-on-year), with the cost of living crisis continuing to have an impact on alcohol consumption domestically.

Compound feed demand for barley is set to increase this season, with barley pricing competitively into some rations, stealing some demand away from wheat (albeit wheat is expected to be snatching some ground off maize). However, given the smaller crop, it is thought that there will be less stock available to feed on farm, leading to fed on farm being trimmed for the season.

While demand is down, it’s outweighed by the drop in availability, leading to a supply and demand balance of 1.701 Mt, down 284 Kt year-on-year. This is projected to be the tightest barley balance since 2012/13.

Where next?

Obviously, these are very early estimates for the 2025/26 season, and a lot could change in the months ahead. However, as it stands now, while demand continues to drop, the reduction in total supply for both wheat and barley is greater leading to quite finely balanced balance sheets.

The first official 2025/26 UK cereals supply and demand estimates for wheat, barley, maize and oats are provisionally scheduled for release on 27 November.

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