Fall in beef and sheep meat production forecast by new AHDB analysis

New industry analysis has forecast lower levels of beef and sheep meat production in Great Britain by 2030.

We carried out this analysis to understand how cattle and sheep supplies may change in the future, which is imperative for the strategic planning of businesses involved in the production of beef and sheep meat.

The analysis forecasts future supplies of beef and sheep meat production based on recent historical trends and creates a ‘landing zone’ for production by 2030 using a set of four scenarios.

The ‘baseline’ scenario applies the 10-year average rate of annual change to the national dairy and suckler herds cow herds and the national breeding ewe flock from 2025 onwards.

To forecast a range around this baseline, a ‘best-case’ and ‘worst-case’ scenario have been modelled, along with a ‘best-case +’ scenario which builds on the forecast range by offering a realistic trajectory for production if producer confidence and efficiency improve further.

The baseline scenario for beef forecasts a 6.1% decline in production by 2030. With more positive market conditions and profitability, the best-case scenario could look like a 5.2% drop in production, while the best-case + is a forecasted reduction of 2.2%.

Hannah Clarke, AHDB Lead Analyst (Red Meat), said:

“When we look ahead, the likely ‘landing zone’ is for a reduced level of beef production in Great Britain by 2030.”

For sheep meat, the baseline scenario forecasts production could drop by 0.6% by 2030. With a slower pace of decline in the female breeding flock, the best-case and best-case + scenarios forecast production could increase by 3.7% and 8.5% respectively.

Hannah said:

“There is a wide ‘landing zone’ for sheep meat production in 2030. Whilst increases in production are expected in the best-case and best-case+ scenarios, there are steps which can be taken to offset the more pessimistic forecasts.”

The report highlights some focus areas where the beef and sheep sectors may need to think and act differently to mitigate a reduction in domestic supplies.

Farmers, the industry and government can all play their role to ensure strong and resilient beef and sheep sectors which can capitalise on future opportunities.

Actions being taken by AHDB include:

• Protecting and promoting the reputation of the industry
• Driving domestic demand through impactful consumer marketing while developing overseas markets for UK product
• Adding carcase value by developing opportunities for UK product in overseas markets
• Providing ongoing insight and evidence to add value to farming businesses

Sam Charlton, Beef & Lamb Sector Director, said:

“The findings of our work will not come as a big surprise for those working in the industry who have faced challenges with domestic sourcing in recent years.

“AHDB’s evidence-based information plays a key role in ensuring an informed discussion on key industry issues. This analysis raises awareness of the issue by quantifying the current direction of travel for GB production figures heading towards 2030.”

Hannah Clarke
AHDB Lead Analyst (Red Meat)