End of week market round-up: Grain market daily

• UK feed wheat futures (May-25) closed at £163.10/t yesterday, down £0.80/t from Wednesday’s close. The Nov-25 contract fell £1.55/t over the same period, to end the session at £182.35/t.
• Domestic wheat futures followed global markets down yesterday, find out more on what’s driving grain markets below.
• May-25 Paris rapeseed futures gained €3.25/t yesterday, to end the session at €518.50/t. The new crop contract (Nov-25) closed at €479.25/t, up €5.25/t from Wednesday’s close.
• Paris rapeseed followed the wider oilseeds complex up yesterday, with Chicago soyabeans (May-25) up 1.2% over the session. This support came from expectations of an uptick in demand for US soyabeans, and comments from US officials regarding a possible de-escalation of trade tensions with Beijing.

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Global grain markets have been under pressure again this week, with May-25 Chicago wheat and Paris milling wheat futures down 3.6% and 0.8% respectively Thursday to Thursday. Movement in global markets has contributed to a fall in domestic prices, with May-25 UK feed wheat futures down 5.7% over the same period. So, what were some of the key drivers this week, and the key watchpoints moving forward?

European crop conditions

Earlier this week, the European Commission released its latest crop monitoring report. In the report, estimated yields of total wheat, total barley, rye, triticale and rape and turnip rape, all increased or remained unchanged from last month’s estimates, adding some bearish sentiment to European prices.

With the dryer conditions as of late and delays to spring plantings in some areas, the EU commission yesterday slightly revised down its EU wheat production forecast for harvest 2025 to 126.3 Mt, compared to 126.5 Mt a month ago. However, the Commission also increased its stocks outlook, with more supplies expected to be left over from this season that initially anticipated.

This morning, FranceAgriMer released its latest crop condition scores, rating 74% of the country’s crop in good or excellent condition by April 21. This is down from 75% a week earlier on the back of dry conditions, but still well above a score of 63% at the same point last year. Maize plantings are also progressing ahead of the usual rate, now estimated to be 50% complete, compared to 39% a week earlier, and a five-year average of 42%.

Slow Ukrainian planting progress

However, Ukraine’s agriculture ministry said this morning that Ukrainian farmers had planted just 2.0 Mha of grain by 24 April, back 17% from the same point last year. The reason for this is reportedly snow across most regions of the country and unusually cold weather at the beginning of April delaying progress. As such, planting conditions over the coming weeks will be something to watch.

Currency fluctuations

Currency fluctuations over the last few weeks have continued to impact the relationship between domestic, European and US markets. Since the start of the month, the euro has strengthened by 2% and 5% against the pound and US dollar respectively, leading to greater pressure on Paris futures. However, this week we have seen some stabilisation, with the euro weakening over the last couple of days. This will remain a key factor to monitor.  

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