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Early Bird Survey forecasts 30% rise in oilseed rape area in 2026
Thursday, 13 November 2025
Provisional results from our Early Bird Survey (EBS), carried out in early November, suggest that harvest 2026 will see a 30% rise in the oilseed rape area from last year’s low level, with a small 1% increase in wheat, though this will vary across the country.
Areas planted with barley and oats are expected to decline. The figures, shown in table 1, have been gathered from the 2025 survey data to produce provisional forecasted crop areas.
However, in recent years (including 2025, our base year for this survey), figures for planted and harvested areas have been different due to extreme weather. It is important to take this uncertainty into account.
Table 1. Provisional results from the EBS of cropping intentions
| Kha | 2025 UK area estimates* | Provisional EBS forecast 2026^ | % year-on-year change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat | 1,664 | 1,675 | +1% |
| Winter barley | 361 | 356 | -2% |
| Spring barley | 720 | 610 | -15% |
| Oats | 198 | 170 | -14% |
| OSR | 243 | 316 | +30% |
* Official provisional UK area estimates for 2025 are not available. Official estimates are for England and Scotland only. AHDB have carried forward the 2024 areas for Wales and Northern Ireland, which have been combined with the provisional England and Scotland figures to produce UK area estimates.
^ Survey of agronomists up to early November 2025.
Source: Defra, the Scottish Government, The Andersons Centre for the AHDB.
Helen Plant, AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds Senior Analyst, said:
“Oilseed rape is the standout for 2026, with a 30% rise to 316 Kha. While this is a significant year-on-year rise, the rise is from the 42-year low recorded in 2025 and the 2026 projection would still be clearly below 2023’s 391 Kha.
“Although the forecasts for autumn drilling conditions were generally good in 2025, the market environment is challenging with lower prices for cereals and lower milling and malting premiums, plus increased costs for all crops.
“As a result, oilseed rape probably had a more favourable margin outlook compared to other crops, as well as the good yields achieved in 2025.
"The poor cereal yields of the past two years, along with ongoing commitments to agri-environment schemes and rotation needs, are also likely to influence 2026 planting plans.”